摘要
针对具有信息灰性、模糊性及语言描述性的工程项目风险问题,定义区间灰色区间直觉不确定语言集用于表达这些特征,结合多属性群决策理论和C-OWA算子,构建工程项目风险辨识和风险评价模型,以南京市纬三路过江隧道为例验证所建模型的可行性。结果表明,该模型可以利用区间灰度、区间隶属度和区间非隶属度以及不确定语言变量,更全面、更真实地表达工程项目的实际信息,得到更符合工程实际的风险辨识和评价结果,帮助项目管理者更准确地预知主要风险因素和风险状态。
According to construction project risk problem with the characteristics of grey, fuzziness and linguistic description, the interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set is defined and used to express these chararacteristics. The construction project risk identification model and assessment model are proposed based on the defined set, multi-attribute group decision making theory and C-OWA operator. We take the Weft Three Road Cross-River Tunnel in Nanjing as a case to verify the proposed models feasible. The research results show that the proposed models can use interval grey degree, interval membership degree, interval non-membership degree and uncertain linguistic variable to express practical construction project information more roundly and veritably. We get more practical risk identification and assessment results, which help project managers to predict key risk factors and risk state more exactly.
作者
刘光凤
周直
许茂增
LIU Guang-feng;ZHOU Zhi;XU Mao-zeng(School of Economics and Management,Chongqingjiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)
出处
《运筹与管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第10期139-145,共7页
Operations Research and Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(71401019)
国家社会科学基金(15CGL051)
重庆市社会科学规划项目(2011YBGL112)
重庆市教委成果技术研究项目(KJQN201800717)
关键词
工程项目
风险辨识
风险评价
区间灰色区间直觉不确定语言集
C-OWA算子
construction project
risk identification
risk assessment
interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set
C-OWA operator
