摘要
本文运用31省(市)1990—2015年的面板数据,采用线性空间面板杜宾模型研究对外贸易和外商直接投资对城市化的影响。研究得出:选择时间固定的空间面板杜宾模型比较适合;外商直接投资和对外贸易通过空间溢出效应正向促进区域城市化,其交互作用反作用于城市化进程;区域城乡收入差距对城市化具有阻碍作用;一定的模型设定条件下,金融发展水平、工业化水平和人均粮食产量具有促进城市化的作用;估计结果及空间溢出效应对空间权重矩阵有一定的敏感性。
This paper, adopting linear spatial panel Durbin Model, studies the impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on urbanization with panel data, cov- ering 31 provinces （municipalities） from 1990 to 2015. The outcome of the study reveals that it is comparatively advantageous to adopt in the time-fixed spatial panel Durbin Model. It is the spatial overflow effect brought about by foreign direct investment and foreign trade that promotes urbanization, which will create a feedback to its interaction. The regional income gap between the urban and rural areas has reverse effect on urbanization. Under given conditions with model setup, financial development level, industrialization level and the grain production per capita will accelerate the steps toward urbanization. Estimation results and spatial spillover effect are sensitive to spatial weight matrix.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第10期147-161,共15页
Journal of International Trade
关键词
城市化
空间溢出
稳健性检验
外商直接投资
Urbanization
Spatial Spillover
Robustness Test
Foreign Direct Investment
