摘要
目的:探析某公立医院CT检查量的时间变化规律,寻找适当的检查量预测方法,为医院大型影像设备合理配置和精细化管理提供思路。方法:采用描述性统计分析某公立医院2013—2016年CT检查量随时间变化的特点,然后根据分析结果选用Holt-Winters加法模型对该医院2017年全年的CT检查量进行预测并对预测结果进行分析。结果:2013—2016年CT检查量逐年增长且具有显著的季节变化特征。2017年全年检查量预测值的相对误差为3.88%,其中10个月的实际值都在预测值的95%置信区间内,1月和4月的实际值略低于预测值的95%置信区间的下限。结论:CT检查量的时间趋势分析及利用Holt-Winters加法模型进行建模预测对医院影像检查相关资源的配置与管理有一定的指导意义,但还需结合可能出现的特殊事件或政策进行具体分析,以提升管理精度。
Objective To analyze the trend of CT examination throughput in some hospital and find throughput prediction method so as to facilitate large imaging equipment allocation and precision management. Methods Descriptive statistical analysis was used to explore the time trend of CT examination throughput from 2013 to 2016, and then Holt-Winters model was selected to predict the CT examination throughput in 2017 and to analyze the predicted results. Results The CT examination throughput increased yearly from 2013 to 2016 and gained obviously seasonal characteristics. The relative error rate was 3.88% for the predicted CT examination throughput in 2017, and the actual values of 10 months were restrained within 95% confidence interval of the predicted values, while the ones of January and April were slightly lower than the lower limit of 95% confidence interval. Conclusion Trend analysis and prediction using Holt-Winters additive model is of value for guiding the allocation and management of hospital imaging facilities, while considerations have to be taken on possible specific events or policies so as to enhance precision management.
作者
赵予涵
张璐璐
ZHAO Yu-han;ZHANG Lu-lu(Department of Medical Equipment,Peking University First Hospital,Beijing 100034,China)
出处
《医疗卫生装备》
CAS
2018年第11期70-73,共4页
Chinese Medical Equipment Journal
关键词
公立医院
CT检查量
大型影像设备
时间趋势分析
预测模型
public hospital
CT examination throughput
large imaging equipment
time trend analysis
prediction model
