摘要
不同于经典的Barro-Becker模型中家庭生育子女数可以自由选择,本文考虑到中国传统文化以及我国“全面两孩”生育政策,构建了一个生育一孩和生育两孩的二元选择情形下、家庭如何根据效用最大化原则进行决策的三期OLG局部均衡模型。运用效用比较分析方法,从理论上解释了家庭如何做出生育选择,并利用中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据进行实证检验。理论结论和实证结果一致。结果表明：非劳动收入增加将使家庭更愿意选择生育两孩,而劳动收入增加对家庭生育选择影响并不明确;抚养子女成本增加以及预期寿命提高会使家庭更愿意选择只生育一孩。鉴于我国当前二孩生育意愿并不强烈,本文认为政府应实施必要的二孩生育激励政策以提高家庭二孩生育意愿。
Different from the Barro-Becker model （Barro and Becker, 1989） in which the family can freely choose the number of children, this paper constructs a three-stage OLG partial equilibrium model in which the family makes the optimal choice of behavior under the conditions of only one child or two children, based on the Chinese traditional culture and the China＇s ＂Comprehensive Two-Child＂ fertility policy. We theoretically explore the family＇s choice between having one child or two children by comparative static analysis and use the data of Chinese General Social Survey （CGSS） 2013 for empirical analysis. The theoretical and empirical results are consistent. The results are： The increase of non-labor income makes the family more willing to choose the second children, while the increase of labor income has no clear effect on the family fertility choice. Increasing the cost of raising children and a higher life expectancy will make family more willing to choose one child. Given the lack of strong tendency to choose a second child in current China, the article holds that the government should start to implement the policy of encouraging the second childbirth to reduce the cost of raising children.
作者
邓翔
万春林
路征
Deng Xiang1;Wan Chunlin2;Lu Zheng3
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第10期96-108,共13页
Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金政策研究重点支持项目“‘一带一路’与中国西部发展”(71742004)
国家自然科学基金项目“中国的人口、人口转变和经济增长”(71673194)阶段性成果
关键词
全面两孩
生育意愿
生育政策
OLG模型
Comprehensive Two-Children
Fertility Desire
Fertility Policy
OLG Model
