摘要
为揭示青海湖水位变化及农牧业特征对气候暖湿化的响应,通过分析流域气象、水位以及草地NDVI变化、建立水位评估模型,计算各因素贡献率,定量评估各要素对湖水位和农牧业的影响。结果表明:流域气候呈显著暖湿化趋势,降水量总体呈弱的增加态势,但2001—2015年增加显著并在2003发生突变;流域内平均气温、最低气温和最高气温均呈显著的升高趋势(P<0.01);湖水位从1961年开始,下降趋势显著,速率为-0.5 m/10 a(P<0.01);2004—2015年连续上升,上升速率达1.44 m/10 a(P<0.01)并在2004年发生了突变;前一年降水量、流量及蒸发量对水位影响大,贡献率大小依次为流量、降水量和蒸发量。因此,2001—2015年的15年里降水量增加及其导致的河流径流量增加可能是水位上涨的主要原因。
The paper aims to reveal the response of water level change and agriculture and husbandrycharacteristics in Qinghai Lake basin to climate warming and wetting. By analyzing the variation of weather,water level and NDVI of grassland in the basin, the authors built a water level assessment model, calculatedthe contribution rate of each factor, and quantitatively assessed the influence of each factor on the water leveland agriculture and animal husbandry. The results showed that： the basin climate had a significant warmingand wetting trend, and the total precipitation had a weak increase trend, and precipitation increasedsignificantly in recent 15 years and had a mutation in 2003; the average, the lowest and highest temperature inbasin had a significant increase（P〈0.01）; the water level declined significantly since 1961 with a rate of-0.5 m/10 a（P〈0.01）; the water level had a continuous rise in 2004-2015 with a rate of 1.44 m/10 a（P〈0.01）and had a mutation in 2004; the amount of precipitation, flow and evaporation in the previous year had greatinfluence on the water level, and the contribution rate followed the order of flow, precipitation and evaporation.Therefore, the increase of precipitation in recent 15 years and the increase of river runoff resulting fromprecipitation may be the main reason of water level rise.
作者
李晓东
李林
汪关信
姚凯荣
何灼伦
肖建设
Li Xiaodong;Li Lin;Wang Guanxin;Yao Kairong;He Zhuolun;Xiao Jianshe(College of Resource and Environment,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 731000;Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science,Xining 810001;Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Xining 810001;Xishui prefectural Meteorological Bureau,Guizhou Province,Xishui Guizhou 564600;Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Qinghai Province,Xining 810001)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2018年第26期119-127,共9页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
青海省科技厅重大专项"三江源智慧生态畜牧业技术平台研发"(2015-SF-A4-1)
青海省农牧厅支农专项"三江源智慧生态畜牧业技术平台研发"(2015-SF-A4-1)
人社部2016年度"留学人员科技活动项目"择优项目
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放基金项目"青海湖水位对气候变化响应动态机制研究"(LPM2014004)
关键词
青海湖流域
气候变化
水位
农牧业
NDVI
Qinghai Lake basin
climate change
water level
agriculture and husbandry
NDVI
