摘要
为了解1971—2014年黑龙江省春季低温指数的分布规律和变化趋势及对作物产量的影响。利用黑龙江省80个气象站春季最低气温和平均气温资料,结合低温指数模型,通过线性回归和EOF分析等方法,对黑龙江省春季低温指数的变化特征进行分析。结果表明:春季低温指数呈减少趋势,1980s以来低温指数明显减少,2010s低温指数明显增加。春季低温指数呈现正、负相间变化,东南部等值线密集,由于热量条件变化多,低温指数变化快;春季低温指数特征向量正值区域低温指数增加,负值区域减少。各站点春季气温呈升高趋势,1970s气温逐渐升高,2010s有所下降,各站点春季低温指数相反。低温指数是气温的一种表现形式。春季气温升高,低温指数将减少;春季低温指数增加,玉米和水稻单产将下降,极端低温事件的发生将造成减产幅度加大。研究结果为区域尺度内研究低温冷害提供基础方法,对科学制定农作物品种布局及确定种植北界有重要的参考价值。
The paper aims to understand the distribution rule and trend of the lowest temperature index inspring and its effects on crop yield in Heilongjiang over 44 years. The authors used the lowest temperatureindex model, linear regression and EOF to analyze the variation characteristics of the lowest temperature indexin spring, based on the daily data of the lowest temperature, average temperature from 80 meteorologicalstations in Heilongjiang from 1971 to 2014. The results showed that： there was a downtrend of the lowesttemperature index in spring, the lowest temperature index decreased obviously since 1980 s, but it increasedsignificantly in 2010 s; the lowest temperature index in spring presented alternate positive and negativevariation in space, because of the heat condition change, the densest isolines and rapid change of the lowesttemperature index appeared in the southeast; the lowest temperature index in spring increased in the positiveregion of characteristic vector, and reduced in the negative region; there was an uptrend of mean temperature ofeach site in spring, which increased since 1970 s, then decreased in 2010 s, however, the change of the lowest temperature index in each site was on the contrary; the lowest temperature index was a kind of expression oftemperature. The lowest temperature index would decrease if the temperature rose in spring; with the increaseof the lowest temperature index in spring, maize and rice yield would decline, extreme low temperature eventswould cut down the production greatly. The results provide a basic method for studying chilling injury inregional scale, and have certain reference value for scientific layout of crop variety and for determining thenorthern boundary of cultivation.
作者
田宝星
于敏
李浩然
殷世平
李宇光
纪仰慧
Tian Baoxing;Yu Min;Li Haoran;Yin Shiping;Li Yuguang;Ji Yanghui(Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Science,Harbin 150030;College of Resources and Environment,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2018年第25期97-103,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所2016年度开放基金项目"基于卫星遥感气溶胶光学厚度产品的哈尔滨大气环境监测评价技术研究"(2016SYIAE10)
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目"基于FY-3的通用特征空间旱情监测与评价技术应用"(CMAGJ2015M18)
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目"基于卫星遥感通用特征空间技术的黑龙江省农区干旱监测研究"(D201414)
黑龙江省气象局科学技术研究项目"基于卫星遥感技术的黑龙江省农情监测及产量趋势估算技术研究"(HQZD2015017)
"黑龙江省大豆生长发育期气象指标验证及应用"(HQ2016014)
"大兴安岭野生蓝莓生长气候条件分析"(HQ2016015)
关键词
低温
春季
产量
黑龙江
low temperature
spring
yield
Heilongjiang
