摘要
本文构建了包含房地产市场波动指数和金融稳定指数的MS-VAR模型,将房地产市场波动分为平缓波动和高波动两个区制以实证两种不同程度的波动对金融稳定的影响,研究结果表明在两区制下房地产市场波动对金融稳定存在非线性影响,房地产市场正常地波动有利于金融稳定,而非正常波动则会对金融稳定造成负面的影响,然后本文在实证的基础上,针对房地产市场提出了稳定我国金融系统的相应措施。
This paper constructs a MS-VAR model that includes the real estate market volatility index and the financial stability index. It divides the real estate market volatility into two zones： smooth fluctuation and high volatility to verify the impact of two different degrees of volatility on financial stability. The result shows that the volatility of the real estate market has a nonlinear effect on the financial stability under the two-zone system. The normal fluctuation of the real estate market is conducive to financial stability. However, the abnormal fluctuation of the real estate market will have a negative impact on the financial stability. Then based on the empirical evidence, this article puts forward corresponding measures to stabilize the financial system of our country against the real estate market.
出处
《浙江金融》
2018年第10期33-40,72,共9页
Zhejiang Finance
关键词
房地产市场波动
金融稳定
主成分分析法
MS-VAR模型
Fluctuation of Real Estate Market
Financial Stability
Principal Component Analysis
MSVAR Model
