摘要
随着海外EPC项目的增多,人们对其风险的管理也愈发重视,对风险管理的成败直接影响项目的顺利进行。对海外EPC项目主要风险进行分析、归类,建立较为完善的评判指标体系;基于AHP及熵权法构建决策偏好组合赋权模型确定指标权重,基于该权重构建海外EPC项目风险多级模糊综合评判模型;运用该模型对某海外EPC项目进行评价并给出合理建议。在项目实施过程中,总体风险与评价结果较为接近,证明了该模型有效,能够对海外EPC项目做出准确评价。
With the development of overseas EPC projects, practitioners and scholars pay increasing attentions to the risk management of these projects. The success or failure of risk management directly affects the performance of these projects. This study analyzes and classifies the main risks of overseas EPC projects and establishes an evaluation index system. A combination weighting model of decision preference is established based on AHP and entropy weight to determine the index weight. A multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for overseas EPC project risk is constructed based on the index weight. This model is used to evaluate an overseas EPC project and provide reasonable suggestions. During the implementation of the project, the overall risk is relatively close to the evaluation results, which indicates that the model is effective and can accurately evaluate the risks of overseas EPC projects.
作者
董彦辰
姜安民
李旋
姚静
谢湘赞
DONGYan_chen;JIANGAn_min;LI Xuan;YAO Jing;XIE Xiang-zan(Hunan Urban Construction College,Xiangtan 411100,China,2.School of Civil Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China)
出处
《工程管理学报》
2018年第5期103-108,共6页
Journal of Engineering Management
基金
湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(16C0290)
湖南城建职业技术学院科学研究项目(16YBKT04)
关键词
海外EPC项目
决策偏好
组合赋权
模糊综合评判法
overseas EPC project
decision-making preference
combination weighting
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
