摘要
基于1957—2013年克里雅河源流区兰干水文站径流、气温、降水观测数据,运用小波分析、M-K突变等方法,以时间序列进行非线性、多尺度响应分析。结果表明：（1）克里雅河径流量和气温呈非线性显著上升,降水量和蒸发量略有上升。（2）在年际尺度上,源流区径流存在8 a周期,气温、降水存在12 a周期;在年代际尺度上,径流存在22 a周期,气温、降水、蒸发量存在28 a周期,同时蒸发量还存有22 a周期。（3）在年际尺度上,径流与降水成正相关,而与气温、蒸发量成负相关;在年代际尺度上,径流与气温相关性更高,受气温影响更显著。（4）在周期振荡上,气温与蒸发量具有一致性;在对气候变化响应上,径流对气温、降水、蒸发变化呈交错滞后响应,该模式对克里雅河径流有削丰补枯的调节作用。（5）与乌鲁木齐河相比,克里雅河径流较乌鲁木齐河在突变时间上存在近10 a滞后,20世纪90年代克里雅河流域气温的异常偏低是引起突变滞后的主要原因。
The characteristics of runoff are crucial for water resources management,water supply planning,environmental protection and ecological regeneration,and the temperature change caused by climate change decreases the stability of surface flow. In this study,the data of runoff volume,air temperature,precipitation and evaporation from Langan Hydrological Station,a management agency of the Keriya River Basin were used to analyze the sources of runoff with the wavelet analysis and M-K mutation test,and the response of runoff volume to temperature and precipitation change was also analyzed. The results showed that：（1） In the past 57 years,the runoff volume and air temperature in the Keriya River Basin was in a significant non-linear upward trend,while the increase of precipitation and evaporation was not obvious;（2） On the interannual scale,there was an 8 a period of runoff volume in the headwaters,and also a 12 a period of temperature and precipitation change. On the interdecadal scale,there was a22 year period of runoff volume change,and also a 28 year period of the change of temperature,precipitation and evaporation. Moreover,there was a 22 a period of evaporation change;（3） Runoff volume was affected by both temperature and precipitation. On the interannual scale,runoff volume was positively correlated with precipitation,but negatively with temperature and evaporation. However,on the interdecadal scale,the correlation between runoff volume and air temperature was higher,and the effect of temperature on runoff volume was more significant;（4） In the periodic oscillation,temperature was in accordance with evaporation. The response of runoff volume change to the changes of temperature,precipitation and evaporation was time-lagged,such mode could regulate runoff volume of the Keriya River;（5） Compared with the Urumqi River,the mutation of runoff volume of the Keriya River lagged for about 10 years,which was caused by the low temperature in the Keriya River Basin in the 1990 s.
作者
王大伟
师庆东
董弟文
陈朝军
WANG Da-wei;SHI Qing-dong;DONG Di-wen;CHEN Chao-jun(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Xinjiang University,Ururnqi 830046,Xinjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,Xinjiang,China;School of Geographical Science,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期1271-1279,共9页
Arid Zone Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(U1703237)
国家自然科学基金项目(U1178303)
关键词
径流量
气候变化
多尺度响应
小波分析
克里雅河
新疆
runoff volume
climate change
multi-scale response
wavelet analysis
Keriya River
Xinjiang
