摘要
基于Logistic回归模型,利用CGSS 2015的调查数据,探讨养老观念及公平感知对育龄人口二孩生育意愿的影响机理。主要结论有:养老观念对育龄人口二孩生育意愿存在显著的负向影响,在控制其他变量的条件下,持子女养老观念相较于持其他养老观念的育龄人口二孩生育意愿低6.216%;公平感知对育龄人口二孩生育意愿存在显著的正向影响,在控制其他变量的条件下,认为当今社会公平的育龄人口相较于持其他公平感知的育龄人口二孩生育意愿高5.567%;年龄、性别、地区、户口性质、子女数量等控制变量亦对育龄人口二孩生育意愿产生影响;养老观念对育有一女群体、"90后"群体、"80后"群体的二孩生育意愿具有显著的负向影响,公平感知对育有一女群体和"80后"群体的二孩生育意愿具有显著的正向影响。基于理论探讨与实证分析,提出相关的政策建议。
Based on the logistic regression model and CGSS 2015 survey data,this paper explores the influence mechanism of the concept of providing for the aged and the fair perception on the second child’s fertility intention. The main conclusions are as follows：the concept of providing for the aged has a significant negative impact on the second child’s fertility intention of the child-bearing age population. Under the condition of controlling other variables,the concept of providing for the aged with children is 6.216% lower than that of the second child of the child-bearing age population with other concept of providing for the aged. Fair perception has a significant positive impact on the second child’ s fertility intention of the child-bearing age population. Under the control of other variables,it is considered that social fairness is 5.567% higher than that of the second child’s fertility intention of the child-bearing age population with other fair perception. Age,sex,region,household registration nature,number of children and other control variables also have an impact on the second child’s fertility intention of child-bearing age population. The concept of providing for the aged has a significant negative impact on the second child’ s fertility intention of one daughter group, ＂ post-90 s ＂ group and ＂ post-80 s＂ group. Fair perception has a significant positive impact on the second child’s fertility intention of a daughter group and ＂ post-80 s＂ group. Based on theoretical and empirical analysis,the article puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
作者
卢秋佳
徐龙顺
卢海阳
黄森慰
魏远竹
LU Qiu-jia;XU Long-shun;LU Hai-yang;HUANG Sen-wei;WEI Yuan-zhu(College of Public Management,Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;College of Economics Management,Ningde Normal University,Ningde,Fujian 352100,China)
出处
《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2018年第6期90-97,共8页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
福建省高校特色新型智库项目"精准扶贫与反返贫研究中心"
福建省财政专项研究课题(闽财教指[2014]78号)
福建省科协科技思想库重点立项项目(FJKX-A1618)
福建农林大学社会科学类第二批科技发展资金项目(KFS201524)
宁德师范学院科研发展资金项目(2017FZ06)
关键词
二孩生育意愿
育龄人口
养老观念
公平感知
the second child’s fertility intention
child-bearing age population
pension concept
fair perception
