摘要
目的应用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测医院住院量和住院费用,为现代医院管理提供科学依据。方法收集某综合性三甲医院2008年1月1日-2017年12月31日出院人数和人均住院费用数据,应用Excel软件建立与评价GM(1,1)模型,并预测其出院人数和人均住院费用。结果出院人数模型的平均相对误差为3.89%,模型精度为优(C=0.27,P=1.00),预测效果好,2018年-2020年出院人数预测值分别为53 516、57 608、62 013人;人均住院费用模型的平均相对误差为2.36%,模型精度为优(C=0.13,P=1.00),预测效果好,2018年-2020年人均住院费用预测值分别为14 571、15 711、16 942元。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型能够很好拟合住院量和住院费用的变动趋势,2018年-2020年该院出院人数和人均住院费用将分别以7.65%、7.83%的年均增长率继续上升,建议进一步加强医院管理,合理配置医疗卫生资源。
Objective To apply the Grey Model（1,1）to predict the number of discharged patients and average hospitalization costs, and to provide scientific basis for modern hospital management. Methods To collect the discharged patients data of a comprehensive third-level hospital from 2008 to 2017, we made the Grey prediction model（1,1）and gave the model evaluation using Microsoft Excel, and then to forecast the number of discharged patients and average hospitalization costs from 2018 to 2020. Results The discharged patients number model was testified to be excellent（C=0.27, P=1.00） and the Mean Relative Error of discharged patients number model was 3.89%. Predicted number of discharged patients from 2018 to 2020 was followed by 53516, 57608, 62013. The average hospitalization costs model was testified to be excellent（C=0.13, P=1.00） and the Mean Relative Error of average hospitalization costs model was 2.36%. Predicted number of average hospitalization costs from 2018 to 2020 was followed by 14571,15711,16942. Conclusions The Grey Model（1,1）had a good matching. The discharged patients number and the average hospitalization costs were predicted to rise by 7.65% and 7.83% respectively in the hospital from 2018 to 2020. It was necessary to enhance allocation of regional health resource and improve the managements of the hospital.
作者
郭伟文
梅文华
郭文燕
Guo Weiwen;Mei Wenhua;Guo Wenyan(Epidemiology and Health Statistics Teaching and Research Section of Medical College of Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,Guangdong Province,China)
出处
《中国病案》
2018年第11期62-66,共5页
Chinese Medical Record
基金
珠海市科技计划医疗卫生项目(20161027F060001)
关键词
GM(1
1)模型
出院人数
人均住院费用
预测
Grey Model （1,1）
Discharged patients number
Average hospitalization costs
Prediction
