摘要
在逆全球化的背景下,本文基于“两国模型”探讨了人民币国际化对中国贸易的影响机理;然后选择代表人民币国际化的多元指标和贸易竞争力指数,运用协整、VAR模型实证检验了人民币国际化对中国贸易竞争力的影响。得到如下结论：长期内跨境贸易人民币结算的扩大、人民币离岸市场的发展对贸易竞争力的提升有正向作用;人民币直接投资（RFDI和ROFDI）的增加对贸易竞争力的提升有负面影响,但影响较小,说明人民币直接投资提升贸易竞争力的动力在现阶段还未被充分释放。中国应进一步推进跨境贸易人民币结算,循序渐进推动资本市场开放,提高人民币的使用程度和国际地位,实现人民币国际化与贸易发展的良性互动,让中国的对外贸易在人民币国际化的进程中真正受益。
Under the background of anti-globalization, this paper based on the ＂two-country model＂ discusses the mechanism of the impact of RMB internationalization on Chinese trade. Then selects trade competitiveness index and multi index which can represent RMB internationalization, and empirically analyzes the impact of RMB internationalization on China ＂s trade competitiveness through Cointegration test and VAR model. The conclusion is as follows： During a long period of time, the expansion of RMB cross-border trade settlement and the development of RMB offshore market are conducive to enhancing the trade competitiveness. The increasing of RMB direct investment （RFDI and ROFDI） has negative effects on the promotion of trade competitiveness, but the effect is limited, indicating that the driving force of RMB direct investment to enhance trade competitiveness has not been fully released at this stage. China should promote the settlement of cross-border trade in RMB, gradually liberalize the capital market- increase the use of RMB and improve its international status. So as to realize the benign interaction between RMB internationalization and trade development, then China＇s foreign trade can really benefit in the process of RMB internationalization.
作者
马德功
曹文婷
MA De-gong;CAO Wen-ting(School of Economics,Sichuan University 610065)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第11期101-113,共13页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化金融支持研究”(项目编号:14BJY055)
2017年四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费研究专项项目“RMB汇率机制及近期的贬值问题研究”(项目编号:skzx201721)的资助
关键词
逆全球化
人民币国际化
贸易竞争力
两国模型
一带一路
人民币离岸市场
Anti-Globalization
RMB Internationalization
Trade Competitiveness
Two-Country Model
The Belt and Road
RMB Offshore Market
