摘要
确保已有产品持续出口是我国当前应对外需疲软、实现出口平稳增长的重要途径,那么这种持续出口行为能否促进出口技术复杂度持续升级呢?文章借助Feenstra和Romalis(2013)提供的数据,基于出口贸易地理优势异质性的视角,探寻上述问题的答案。研究发现:首先,产品持续出口不一定能促进出口技术复杂度的持续升级,其作用轨迹呈现倒U形,而二者在中国则呈现出显著的"出口持续能力过强、正效应区间过短"的特征;其次,具有"契约型地理优势"或毗邻进口大国型空间地理优势的经济体拥有更长的"正效应区间",而沿海型空间地理优势不仅会缩短出口持续时间的"正效应区间",还会对发达经济体的出口技术复杂度升级产生不利影响;最后,加大高技术产品和新产品的持续出口力度,有助于"稳出口增长"和"促结构优化"齐头并进,加大传统优势产品持续出口力度只能作为中国应对外需疲软和就业压力的权宜之计,从长期看应倒逼出口持续时间过长的产品进行技术革新,以获得一个全新的"正效应区间"。
A guarantee of export duration of present products is an important route to the solution to insufficient foreign demand and the realization of stable export growth.Can the export duration behavior advance constant upgrading of export technology sophistication?Through the data provided by Feenstra & Romalis in 2013,this paper explores the answer to the above-mentioned question from a perspective of heterogeneity of trade geographic advantages.It comes to the following results:firstly,it is uncertain that export duration of products can advance constant upgrading of export technology sophistication,and its effect locus is featured by U shape;and these two are significantly characterized by excess strong export duration capability and too short positive effect interval;secondly,economies with contract-based geographic advantage and spatial geographic advantage being a neighbor of larger importing country have longer positive effect interval;coast-based spatial geographic advantage not only shortens the positive effect interval of export duration,but also has unfavorable effect on the upgrading of export technology sophistication in developed economies;finally,the increase in export duration strength of high-tech and new products is beneficial to the stabilization of export growth and the promotion of structure optimization and the increase in export duration strength of products with traditional advantages is only regarded as a makeshift for the solution to insufficient foreign demand and employment pressure in China in the short run.In the long run products with too long export duration should be technologically reformed to receive a new positive effect interval.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期74-86,共13页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社科基金青年项目"外需疲软与成本上升背景下我国制造业产品技术复杂度的升级机制与赶超策略研究"(13CJY060)
关键词
出口持续时间
出口技术复杂度
空间地理优势
契约型地理优势
左右删除
export duration
export technology sophistication
spatial geographic advantage
contract-based geographic advantage
left and right censoring
