摘要
在汇率制度选择中经常存在言行不一的问题,这也成为美国指责中国操纵汇率的主要借口。文章在构建一个广义的汇率制度识别框架的基础上,利用时变系数模型甄别了2000-2013年中国实际实行的汇率制度。研究发现,中国在2005年"汇改"前实行的是严格盯住美元的汇率制度,之后实行的是参照一篮子货币的浮动汇率制度,即以"汇率篮子、波动范围和爬行速度"为操作核心的"BBC体制"。在人民币汇率篮子中,美元的平均权重达0.91且呈现V形变化,其他货币如欧元、新加坡元、卢布的权重也是显著的且呈现阶段性变化;在2008年以后,人民币汇率篮子中的币种通常是"美元+x"的二元组合,货币当局对货币x的选择是以降低整体的波动性为依据的。人民币汇率弹性总体上以2010年7月为界呈现Λ形变化;在2005年7月以后,人民币整体上处于升值通道中,但其爬行速度以2009年3月为界呈现先快后慢的V形变化。
Words vs.deeds problem is common in exchange rate regime selection field,which also becomes the main excuse of US's blaming China for currency manipulation.Based on a generalized exchange rate regime identification framework,this paper uses time-varying coefficient model to identify exchange rate regime actually implemented in China from 2000 to 2013.It arrives at the following conclusions:before the exchange rate regime reform in 2005,China carried out a strict dollar pegged exchange rate regime;then it implemented the floating exchange rate regime with reference to the currency basket,namely BBC regime focusing on an exchange rate basket,volatility range and crawling speed.USD accounts for 91% weight in RMB exchange rate basket and shows a V-shape change;other currencies such as the Euros,Singapore dollars,Rubles also account for a significant share in some stages in currency basket;after 2008,currencies in RMB exchange rate basket are usually the '$+x' binary combination and the selection of currency x by monetary authorities is in accordance with the reduction in the whole volatility.In general,RMB exchange rate flexibility presents aΛ?shape change taking July 2010 as the boundary;RMB is entering an appreciation channel since July 2005,but its crawling speed shows a V-shape change taking March 2009 as the boundary.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期27-40,共14页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
首都经济贸易大学校级科研项目(2014XJQ008)
首都经济贸易大学2013年度科研基金项目的资助
关键词
人民币
汇率篮子
币种权重
制度弹性
爬行速度
RMB
exchange rate basket
currency weight
institutional flexibility
crawling speed
