摘要
文章基于我国人口老龄化对养老保险体系可持续发展影响日益凸显的现实背景,运用系统精算模型对四种情况下我国基本养老保险基金的财务运行状况进行动态模拟,以重点观察延迟退休年龄与调整生育政策所产生的效果以及降低缴费率的可能性。研究显示:(1)在不实施任何改革方案的情况下,大约30年后我国的基本养老保险基金将出现亏损,面临支付危机;(2)而适时延迟法定退休年龄,引入"单独二孩"等生育政策调整,则可以消化人口老龄化对养老保险体系带来的负面影响,同时为降低基本养老保险缴费率的改革提供基础;(3)在一定的条件下,即使缴费率显著降低,基金收支仍能保持略有盈余的状态,从而减轻企业和职工的缴费负担,为进一步扩大覆盖面创造条件。因此,适时延迟法定退休年龄和调整生育政策,是实现养老保障体系可持续发展的有效措施。
Based on the reality of constantly prominent effect of population aging in China on the sustainable development of the basic pension system,this paper makes a dynamic simulation of financial operation of the basic pension fund(BPF)under four different situations by systematic actuarial model,and focuses on the effects of delayed retirement age and the adjustment to fertility policy and the possibility of contribution rate reduction.It comes to the results as follows:firstly,without any reform plans,BPF will have a deficit and face solvency crisis in the next thirty years;secondly,timely retirement age rise and the adjustment to fertility policy like the introduction of two-child policy can offset the negative effect of population aging on the basic pension system and also provide a basis for the reform of the reduction in contribution rate of basic pension insurance;thirdly,in a certain condition,although contribution rate significantly decreases,the fund will still maintain a small surplus,thereby reducing the contribution burdens of firms and employees and creating conditions for further coverage expansion.Therefore,timely retirement age rise and the adjustment to fertility policy are effective measures to realize the sustainable development of the basic pension system.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期46-57,69,共13页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(10CGL057)
