摘要
本文利用重庆市2017年育龄妇女生育意愿抽样调查数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型对人口计生家庭结构特征对二孩生育意愿的影响进行了回归分析。研究发现:(1)育龄夫妇为'双独''独子非独女'与'独女非独子'对二孩生育意愿影响显著且回归系数为正;(2)已有子女数对二孩生育意愿影响显著且回归系数为负;(3)已有子女性别对于二孩生育意愿影响显著且回归系数为负。文章认为有效提高二孩生育对于宏观经济社会可持续发展具有战略意义,从供给和需求层面做好二孩生育的综合配套政策,做到二孩生育及其后期相关成本在不同层面之间得到合理分摊。
Based on the sample survey data of reproductive age women in Chongqing in 2017,this paper uses the binary logistic regression model to analyze the influence of family structure on the second child’s reproductive intention.The results show that:(1)couples of child-bearing age who are'double-only','only child not only daughter'and'only daughter not only child'have a significant impact on the second child’s fertility intention and the regression coefficient is positive;(2)the number of children already has a significant impact on the second child’s fertility intention and the regression coefficient is negative;(3)the sex of children already has a significant impact on the second child’s fertility intention and the regression coefficient is negative.The regression coefficient is negative.The article holds that it is of strategic significance for the sustainable development of macro-economy and society to effectively improve the birth of two children.It is necessary to make a comprehensive supporting policy for the birth of two children in terms of supply and demand,so as to achieve a reasonable allocation of related costs between different levels.
作者
周宗社
侯明喜
薛晓
ZHOU Zong-she;HOU Ming-xi;XUE Xiao(Social and Public Managment School,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;Population Development and Policy Research of Center,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)
出处
《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》
2019年第5期69-77,共9页
Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition
基金
重庆市社会科学规划项目(2017BS05)“精准扶贫视角下的我国农村贫困家庭代际传递研究”
重庆市教委人文社会科学重点规划项目(19SKH073)“2020年后重庆三峡库区脱贫人群返风险评估与对策研究”
关键词
计生家庭
育龄妇女
二孩生育
生育意愿
family planning family
childbearing age women
two child birth
childbearing intention
