摘要
抗震裕度分析是评估核电厂抵御外部事件能力的必要方法,裕度分析中的关键参数依赖于地震危险性分析结果,而其结果受不确定性影响较大。本文总结了抗震裕度分析方法,分析了审查级地震的选取以及地震概率危险性分析中不确定性对抗震裕度分析的影响,对抗震裕度分析中如何考虑不确定性提出相关建议。
The seismic margin assessment methodology is considered a necessary approach to assess nuclear plant safety to external events. To a large degree,the key parameters of seismic margin assessment rely on the seismic hazard analysis,which is greatly influenced by the uncertainty of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This paper mainly introduced the seismic margin assessment methodology,the selection of review level earthquake,the uncertainty of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and its effects on seismic margin assessment. At last,some suggestion about how to deal with the uncertainties is provided.
出处
《地震工程与工程振动》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第S1期87-92,共6页
Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics
基金
国家科技重大专项资助(2011ZX06002-010)
环保公益性行业专项(201309056)
关键词
概率地震危险性分析
不确定性
抗震裕度
地震概率风险评估法
审查级地震
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
uncertainty
seismic margin assessment
seismic probabilistic risk assessment
review level earthquake
