摘要
碳排放交易的市场效率及减排效果受各类角色及大量参与者决策的影响,参与者特别是市场设计者及监管者必须掌握其行为及机理。实验经济学通过真实实验人参与的实验,反映参与者的有限理性。但其实验规模受限于合格实验者的数量,而多场景实验之间的可比性还受限于实验者的专注度。为此采用了一种混合交互仿真法,先通过实验提炼出真实实验人群在碳排放交易中的不确定行为的关键变量及规律,据此建立具有相同分布特性的多代理随机模型。此后就只需动用少量真实实验人来反映特殊的决策者,并与上述模型生成的大量多代理交互仿真。在保持实验经济学特点的同时,克服了其对实验规模的限制,并保证了重复实验的统计一致性。
The market efficiency and regulation effects of carbon emission trading strongly depend on decisions made by different kinds of participants in the carbon emission market.Therefore,the participants,especially the policy designers and regulators, should understand the participants” trading behaviors and their underlying mechanisms.Experimental economics can reflect participants”“bounded rationality' characteristic through humans” participating in experiments. However,the scale of experiment is limited due to the difficulty to have enough qualified human participants,and the comparability among the multi-scenario experiments is also limited due to the variations of human participants”concentration level.This paper adopts a hybrid interactive simulation methodology.Human-subjected experiments with a small group of human participants are conducted. Major driving factors and their influencing rules on human participants” uncertain behaviors are extracted,which can aid the construction of multi-agent stochastic models with the same distribution characteristics.In this way,only a small group of humans are needed to represent the special decision makers,who can interact with large numbers of multi-agents constructed by the aforementioned method.The methodology discussed can overcome the scale limitations and meanwhile maintain the merits of experimental economics.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第17期80-86,共7页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51307153)
国家电网公司基础性前瞻性科技项目(DZ71-13-007)~~
关键词
碳排放交易
实验经济学
随机多代理建模
计算经济学
混合交互仿真
carbon emission trading
experimental economics
stochastic multi-agent modeling
computational economics
hybrid interactive simulation
