摘要
构建了计及不确定性的用户响应模型,通过负荷削减能力和响应的不确定性两个特征描述需求响应随经济激励及其他因素变化的规律。以基于电力积分机制的需求响应满足有序用电计划的缺口为背景,将用户负荷形状的改变和外部因素之间的关系用不确定性模型来表征,不仅突出激励水平对于用户负荷削减或转移能力的影响,还兼顾响应行为主观、随机的特点。基于此构造了以电网公司为实施主体的决策模型,结合随机模拟和扩展优先顺序法求解。算例分析验证了建模和求解的有效性,用户响应行为的不确定性建模能为电网公司提供更全面的决策信息,针对性地提高需求响应实施效果。
A customer response model considering uncertainty is developed.The laws of demand response (DR) change with economic incentive and other factors are described with load curtailing capacity and response uncertainty.Since the DR based on power-score mechanism should meet the power shortage of the orderly power utilization plan,the relationships between changes of the customer load curve and external factors are described by the uncertain model.Thus not only can the influence of incentives on customer load curtailment or transfer capacity be explained,but also the characteristics of subjectivity and stochasticity of response behaviors are considered.Then a decision model for the grid company is developed and solved by stochastic simulation and extended priority method.Results of case study have verified the effectiveness of the above-mentioned modeling and solving methods.With more comprehensive information provided to the grid company because of the uncertainty of customer response behaviors,the implementation effect on DR can be selectively enhanced as well.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期93-99 150,150,共8页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A115)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71471036
51277028)~~
关键词
需求响应
电力市场
不确定性
响应模型
决策模型
灵敏度分析
demand response(DR)
power market
uncertainty
response model
decision model
sensitivity analysis
