摘要
结合中原经济区"三化"协调发展的国家战略,基于自然正交函数(EOF)分析中原经济区经济增长的时空特征,借助地理加权回归(GWR)揭示其驱动力。EOF第一模态分析表明:中原经济区经济增长的空间分布沿京广线的东西两侧反相分布,京广线以西增长快于京广线以东;时间系数表现出明显的年际特征,且东、西两部分有近10年的循环周期。第二模态反映局部区域经济增长的年际异常,其呈西南、东北反相空间分布;时间系数年际波动明显。GWR分析发现:驱动力的作用在空间上存在差异。农民人均纯收入对中原经济区经济增长的影响最大,呈正相关关系。资源禀赋是第二大影响因素,也呈正相关关系。经济区位是第三大影响因素,其他因素依次是第二产业、城市化和农业机械总动力。影响中原经济区经济增长的因素有明显的经度地带性规律。因此,制定区域发展政策时,要考虑不同行政区的特殊性。
Combined with the national strategic requirement of coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization and agriculture in Central Plains Economic Zone, selecting the data of per capita GDP from 1988 to 2012, this paper, by adopting the natural orthogonal function(EOF), analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of economic growth in Central Plains Economic Zone, and revealed the main driving force of economic growth and evolution with the aid of geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. The first modal of EOF analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the economic growth, on the whole, in Central Plains Economic Zone is out of phase along Beijing-Guangzhou Raiway(BGR), and that economy west of the BGR grows faster than that to east of the BGR and their corresponding time coefficients showed the obvious interannual change, and parts of region to the east and west of the railway have nearly 10 years of development cycle. The second mode reflected the annual anomaly of economic growth in some parts of the zone, and the phase distribution of spatial pattern in southwest and northeast of the region, and the interannual fluctuation of its corresponding time coefficients is more obvious. GWR analysis showed that the importance of factors that result in the change of per capita GDP in the Central Plains Economic Zone is different in space. The per capita net income of rural residents boasts the greatest influence on the economic growth of the Central Plains Economic Zone, and there is a positive correlation. Resources endowment is the second largest influencing factor, and also positively correlated with economic growth. The economic location is the third influencing factor, followed by the secondary industry, the level of urbanization, and agricultural machinery total power. Agricultural machinery total power has the least influence, and is negative correlated with economic growth. The factors that influence the economic growth in the Central Plains Economic Zone showed a clear longitudinal zonality. Therefore, the uniqueness of different administrative regions should be considered in the formulation of regional development policies.
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第7期1230-1238,共9页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41201099)
关键词
EOF
GWR
时空
中原经济区
EOF
GWR
spatial temporal
Central Plains Economic Zone
