摘要
河流含沙量预测是河流冲淤变化分析的重要依据。具有较强数理统计功能的ARIMA模型在许多变量预测中已得到应用。本文结合ARIMA模型对新疆喀什地区的河流含沙量进行预测。预测结果表明:ARIMA模型对喀什地区河流含沙量预测具有较好的适用性,计算相对误差在20%以内,相关系数在0.75以上。研究成果对于喀什地区河流含沙量预测具有较高的参考价值。
The prediction of sediment concentration in rivers is an important basis for the analysis of river erosion and siltation.The ARIMA model with strong mathematical statistics has been applied in many variable predictions.This paper combines the ARIMA model to predict the sediment concentration of rivers in the Kashi region of Xinjiang.The prediction results show that the ARIMA model has good applicability to the prediction of river sediment concentration in Kashi,and the relative error is less than 20%,and the correlation coefficient is above 0.75.The research results have a high reference value for the prediction of river sediment concentration in Kashi.
作者
艾克拜尔·吾迈尔
Aikebaier·Wumaier(Xinjiang Kashi Hydrographic Survey Bureau,Xinjiang,Kashi,844000)
出处
《地下水》
2019年第4期138-139,共2页
Ground water
关键词
ARIMA模型
含沙量预测
适用性分析
新疆喀什
ARIMA model
sediment concentration prediction
applicability analysis
Kashi
Xinjiang
