摘要
采用生态学研究和时间序列研究两种方法，分析了沈阳市大气污染对总死亡率及各种急、慢性病因的影响（用１９９２年死亡资料），在按市环保历年监测数据分成高、中、低３个污染区后，３区间差异有显著性者为总死亡率、慢性阻塞性肺疾患（ＣＯＰＤ）、心脑血管病、总癌和结核。时间序列研究全市每天死亡率与死前３天平均污染水平（ＴＳＰ和ＳＯ２），在调控当天气温和气湿后，分析污染与死亡的相关。得知：与污染水平相关有显著性者有总死亡率、ＣＯＰＤ、心脑血管病。ＴＳＰ每增加１００μｇ／ｍ３，三类死因各增加２％、３％、２％；ＳＯ２每增加１００μｇ／ｍ３，三类死因各增加２％、７％、２％。ＣＯＰＤ和ＳＯ２相关更密切，而心脑血管病与ＴＳＰ相关更密切。提示大气污染物除造成居民健康慢性损害外，还有加剧此等慢性病人病情，加速死亡的作用。
The effect of air pollution on total and disease-specific mortalities was conducted in Shenyang using ecological and time series analysis. The mortalities of total causes .chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), cerebral-heart vascular diseases(CVD), total cancer causes and tuberculosis were of significant difference among three different polluted (high, middle and low) areas in ecological analysis. Time series analysis demonstrated a significant association between daily mortality and daily ambient TSP and SO2 pollution(lagged moving averages)after adjusted daily temperature and humidity. The risks of all causes, COPD, and CVD mortality were estimated to increase by 2%, 3 % and 2% with a 100μg/m3 increase in TSP,and by 2%, 7% and 2 % with a 100μg/m3 in SO2. Result suggests that ambient air pollution has not only chronic deterioration but also acute harmful effect accelerating death to susceptible patients.
