摘要
夜光藻是赤潮的主要发生种,应用随机(概率的)型时间序列模型对南海大鹏湾的夜光藻种群进行动态分析,旨在研究夜光藻发生赤潮的种群机理。本文采用的夜光藻种群密度取自南海大鹏湾1990年4月2日至6月10日每隔2天采样一次所得的数据。运用ρ_k和φ_(kk)的性质进行模型识别,确定出3个站位6个断面的已知序列均为自回归AR(P)模型,并建立了6个AR(P)模型,其一般式为:AR(P):x_t=sum from i=1 to ρφ_ix_(t-i)+E_t。结果表明:夜光藻的密度呈明显的上下分层现象;夜光藻种群的增殖具有一定的稳定性,夜光藻种群密度在某一相对稳定值范围内波动,此相对稳定值被定为其种群数量临界值(K_f)。当夜光藻种群数量高于临界值时,在环境条件许可的情况下,可能发生赤潮,而低于临界值时,即使有适宜的环境条件夜光藻也不可能骤然增殖。
Random (Probability)time series models were applied to analyse population dynamic of Noctiluca scintillans, so as to predict the Noctiluce red tides. Sampling from April 2 to June 10, 1990, once per two days in Da-pong Bay, South China Sea were carried out. Density of population was calculated by cell number counting. Reproduction condition of this dinoflagellate was as well as followed. During research period Noctiluca red tades were observed on April 2, and April 19 respectively. Among six models: AP(P): x_t=sum from i=1 to ρ φ_tx_(t-1)+E_i was efficentiy used. It was found that when mass occurence of Noctiluca scintillans population reachs a certain volume, it may be as a key point (K_f) and suppose that lower than this point Noctiluca scintillans conld not develop massively, even environment factors suitable.
出处
《暨南大学学报（自然科学与医学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1991年第3期96-103,共8页
Journal of Jinan University(Natural Science & Medicine Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
夜光藻
种群
临界值
赤潮
大鹏湾
Noctiluca scintillans, Probability, Da-pong Bay, Population dynmaic, A key point
