摘要
基于在线大气化学模式WRF/chem,考虑气溶胶直接辐射效应,模拟2015年1月1日—12月31日天津地区地面太阳辐射通量,并与未考虑气溶胶辐射效应的同参数中尺度气象模式WRF进行对比,分析在雾霾频发的天津地区,增加气溶胶直接辐射效应后对太阳能预报的改进效果。结果表明,在雾霾频发的天津地区,气溶胶对地面太阳辐射预测的影响不可忽略,以2015年计算,全年影响均值27.42 W·m^(-2),即全年太阳辐射辐照量下降864 MJ·m^(-2);在太阳能预报重点关注的9:00—16:00,影响值约为73.3 W·m^(-2)。由于气溶胶的作用,全年有6.3%的时日太阳辐射被削减50%,19%的时日太阳辐射被削减超过30%,尤其是在雾霾频发的11月—次年2月,约有18%~25%的太阳辐射+6被大气中气溶胶吸收和散射而未能到达地面。大气化学模式WRF/chem由于考虑了气溶胶直接辐射效应,可以显著地改善地面太阳辐射的预报性能,降低模式预报的正偏差,其均值偏差由44.74 W·m^(-2)降低到16.09 W·m^(-2),相关系数由0.88提高到0.92,相对均方根误差由36.6%降低到23.2%,相对误差由27.8%下降到15%。在雾霾影响较为严重的区域,基于在线大气化学模式开展的太阳能预报效果优于中尺度天气模式预报。
The solar radiation was simulated by atmospheric chemistry model WRF/chem (consider the aerosol direct radiation effect)from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015 on Tianjin, it was compared between WRF (without considering the effect of aerosolradiation). It was used to analyze the improvement of solar radiation modeling on Tianjin by Adding the radiation effect of aerosol.The results show that, Radiation effect of aerosol cannot be ignored on Tianjin, the year average was 27.42 W·m-2 during 2015, thevalue was 73.3 W·m-2 from 09:00 to 16:00. Statistical all the sample during 2015, 6.3% sample of solar radiation was decreased morethan 50% due to aerosol was, 19% sample of solar radiation was decreased more than 30% due to aerosol, Atmospheric chemistrymodel WRF/chem can significantly improve the simulation of solar radiation, the mean deviation decreased 44.74 W·m-2 to 16.09W·m-2, correlation coefficient increased from 0.88 to 0.92, the relative root mean square error decreased from 36.6% to 23.2%, andthe relative error drop from 27.8% to 15%.
作者
蔡子颖
刘敬乐
黄鹤
刘爱霞
CAI Ziying;LIU Jingle;HUAN He;LIU Aixia(Tianjin Environmental Meteorological Center, Tianjin 300074, China;Tianjin Institute of Meteorology, Tianjin 300074, China;Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074, China)
出处
《生态环境学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第9期1471-1475,共5页
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
基金
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-005)
天津科技计划项目(14ZCZDGX00037)
环保公益行业专项(201409001)
