摘要
使用Ts评分、面向对象的预报检验等方法,对2016年4—6月武汉市出现的三次强降水过程模式精细化预报结果进行了质量检验,在分析和总结各检验方法的优缺点的基础上,提出了以一次区域范围内的强降水作为研究对象,考虑降水起止时间、单位时间雨强和强降水出现时段等因素,以区域内各站点降水预报时间序列和实况时间序列的相关系数构建空间分布矩阵,通过对矩阵的结构和数值进行分析以检验模式降水精细化预报准确度的综合预报质量检验方法。结果表明:由于考虑了降水在区域内的时空分布,综合检验方法评价模式通过对强降水总量、发生、发展的总体评价得出的结论更为准确客观,更加符合气象服务的实际需要。
Based on Ts scores and object-oriented forecast verifications, the model forecast results of three severe precipitation events in Wuhan from April to June 2016 are examined. On the basis of analysis and examination of the advantages and disadvantages of each inspection method, we have put forward a comprehensive quality inspection method for the accuracy of model precipitation, which takes regional severe rainfall as the research object, considers precipitation starting and ending times, rainfall intensity, severe precipitation period and other factors, and is constructed by the correlation coefficient’s spatial matrix between the regional stations’forecast and actual precipitation time series. Through the structure and numerical analysis of spatial matrix, the result shows that considering the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation in the region, the comprehensive quality inspection method is more objective for evaluation of severe rainfall’s total amount,the occurrence and development, and more in line with the actual needs of meteorological service.
作者
李明
袁凯
翟红楠
LI Ming;YUAN Kai;ZHAI HongNan(Wuhan Meteorological Service, Wuhan 430040)
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2017年第1期81-85,共5页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
城市暴雨内涝风险预警业务建设(中国气象局2016年山洪工程项目)
关键词
强降水
精细化预报
质量检验
severe precipitation
elaborate forecast
quality inspection method
