摘要
通过对中国1978年至2016年PPI和CPI的年度同比数据进行格兰杰因果关系检验并建立一阶自回归模型,探究了两者之间的因果关系和传导机制。实证结论表明在滞后一期情况下,PPI是CPI的格兰杰原因,反之不成立,即总体上存在着由PPI到CPI的线性传导机制,PPI先行引导CPI变动,上游价格的变动通过"生产链"和"价值链"对下游价格具有正向传导效应,物价可能因供给因素的冲击而上升,并有引发"成本推动型通货膨胀"的风险,通胀治理应以"供给调控"为主。
In this paper,the method of Granger causal relation test and an AR (1)model are adopted to test the causal relationship and transmission mechanism between China’s PPI and CPI based on year-on-year data from 1978 to 2016. The conclusions show that if lag one year,PPI does Granger cause CPI,but CPI does not Granger cause PPI. It means that generally there exists a linear transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI,implying price increasing at the early stages of production will lead to increase in consumer prices at the late stage through the “production chain”and the“value chain”. And it is likely to boost costpush inflationary risk due to the impact of supply factors. Supply regulation should be the primary means to control inflation.
作者
王兵
WANG Bing(School of Business,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou Gansu,730070,China)
出处
《晋中学院学报》
2017年第2期44-49,共6页
Journal of Jinzhong University
关键词
PPI
CPI
因果关系
传导机制
CPI
PPI
causal relationship
transmission mechanism
