摘要
文章在分析广西14个地级市旅游总收入与生产总值数据的基础上,运用协整分析、Granger因果检验以及变系数随机效应模型对各地级市旅游经济效应进行了研究。研究表明:长期来看,广西14个地市的旅游经济效应存在差异,桂林、北海等10个地级市的旅游发展对经济增长起到促进作用,其中带动作用较大的前五个地市是梧州、北海、柳州、玉林、桂林。同时桂林、柳州、贺州、防城港的旅游收入与GDP互为Granger原因;百色、玉林的旅游总收入是GDP增长的Granger原因,而贵港、钦州、梧州的GDP增长是旅游收入的Granger原因。最后在研究结果的基础上提出了一些建议。
Based on the data of total tourism revenue and GDP of14prefecture-level cities in Guangxi,Cointegra?tion analysis,Granger causality test and variable coefficient random effect model were used to study the economic ef?fect of tourism of Guangxi.On the study,In the long run,there were differences in the economic effects of tourism in14cities,the tourism development of Guilin,Beihai and other10prefecture level cities play an important role in promot?ing economic growth,Which led the role of the first five cities were Wuzhou,Beihai,Liuzhou,Yulin and Guilin.At thesame time,Guilin,Liuzhou,Hezhou,Fangchenggang tourism revenue and GDP growth for Granger reasons,Baise,Yulin’s total tourism revenue was the Granger reason for GDP growth,While Guigang,Qinzhou,Wuzhou GDP growthwas the Granger reason for tourism revenue.Finally,some suggestions were put forward on the basis of the research re?sults.
作者
卓全娇
ZHUO Quan-jiao(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013 China)
出处
《广西经济管理干部学院学报》
2017年第1期80-85,92,共7页
Journal of GuangXi Cadres College of Economic and Management
