摘要
科学地评估空气质量的经济价值是政府制定空气污染治理政策的必要前提。近年来选择实验方法逐渐兴起,并被研究者广泛应用于环境价值评估。与其他陈述偏好方法相比,选择实验的一个优势是其具有更高的外部效度。选择实验方法在国内的应用研究尚处在起步阶段。本研究分别在2015年和2016年对北京市居民开展了两次基于选择实验方法的网络调查,在调查数据的基础上采用随机参数Logit和广义多元Logit模型分析了北京市居民对空气质量的偏好,并据此估算了空气质量价值。根据2015年样本的估算结果,雾霾天气(PM_(2.5)超标)和沙尘天气(PM_(10)超标)对北京市居民的平均边际价值分别为6.32元/d和2.69元/d;根据2016年样本的估算结果,两个价值分别为7.72元/d和2.81元/d。上述估算结果在两次调查样本中基本稳定,而且,在多种模型设定下都具有较强的稳健性,与近年来的同类研究结果基本一致。以2016年样本的估算结果为基础,2015年北京市雾霾天气和沙尘天气引起的价值损失分别为239.61亿元和45.13亿元,占北京市当年GDP总量的1.04%和0.20%。进一步研究发现,北京市2015年和2016年空气质量改善的价值均低于北京市政府同年用于治理空气污染投入的财政资金总量,说明资金使用效率有待进一步提高;此外,虽然空气质量对高收入居民具有更高的价值,但是,以收入水平为指标设计的累进税率并不比固定税率更优。
The scientific evaluation of air quality is a prerequisite for the government to develop air pollution control policies.In recent years,choice experiment has been increasingly used to measure environmental values.Compared with other stated preference methods,the higher external validity is an important advantage of choice experiment.At present,several foreign studies have evaluated air quality in different regions by using choice experiment.By contrast,the application of choice experiment in China is still in its infancy.The aim of this paper is to add new empirical evidence on air quality evaluation in Beijing by using the method of choice experiment.Specifically,we design a choice experiment regarding air quality and conduct two online surveys on Beijing residents respectively in2015and2016.According to the survey data,we use random parameter logit model and generalized multinomial logit model to elicit individual’s preference on air quality,and thus estimate the value of air quality.According to the sample in2015,the mean marginal values of one hazy day(i.e.with excess PM2.5)and one sandy/dusty day(i.e.with excess PM10)are respectively6.32yuan and269yuan.And according to the sample in2016,the corresponding marginal values are respectively772yuan and2.81yuan.Above estimates are basically stable in the two survey samples,and remain robust in different model specifications,and also keep consistent with results of relevant studies.Consequently,Beijing’s hazy and sand dust weather in2015leads to losses respectively worth23.96billion yuan and4.51billion yuan,namely1.04%and0.20%of GDP.We further find that the economic values of air quality improvement in2015and2016are all considerably lower than Beijing’s fiscal input on controlling air pollution,indicating that the efficiency of fiscal fund should be further improved.Besides,although income has a significantly positive impact on individual level air quality value,we do not find progressive tax rate is obviously better than flat tax rate.
作者
全世文
QUAN Shi-wen(Institute of Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第9期46-55,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"基于选择实验的北京市雾霾治理公共政策研究"(批准号:16XNB023)
