摘要
基于2000—2016年青岛市崂山地区樱桃产量资料和气象观测资料,利用全国农业气象产量预报业务系统(WAPFOS 2015.1.0版本),分析影响崂山地区樱桃产量形成的关键气象因子,建立崂山地区樱桃产量预报模型。基于2000—2014年樱桃产量资料进行樱桃趋势产量和气象产量分离,建立崂山地区樱桃趋势产量和气象产量预报的回归模型,并利用2015—2016年樱桃产量资料对模型进行试报检验。结果表明:2000—2014年崂山地区樱桃产量预报模型平均预报准确率达96.98%,2015年和2016年樱桃产量预报准确率分别为95.94%、96.80%,模型反映影响崂山地区樱桃产量的主要气象因子为3月上中旬平均最低气温、3月中下旬降雨量、4月上旬降雨量和4月中旬平均最低气温。崂山地区樱桃产量歉年3月上中旬平均最低气温低于-5.0℃,3月中下旬降雨量大于15.0 mm,4月上旬降雨量小于5.0 mm;丰年3月上中旬平均最低气温大于-3.0℃,3月中下旬降雨量小于5.0 mm,4月上旬降雨量大于15.0 mm。
Based on the meteorological and cherry yield data in Laoshan area of Qingdao from2000to2016,the key meteorological factors affecting cherry yield were investigated and the cherry yield forecasting model was estimated using the operational system on agrometeorological yield forecasting(WAPFOS2015.1.0).More specifically,based on the separated trend and meteorological yields from the cherry yield data in Laoshan area from2000to2014,the trend and meteorological yield forecast model for cherry was established by using grey smoothing simulation,polynomials and stepwise regression methods and the prediction test of the model was carried out with the data from2015to2016.The results show that the accuracies of the cherry yield forecast model are,on average96.98%during20002014,95.94%in2015,and96.80%in2016,respectively.According to the established model,the determined key meteorological factors affecting cherry yield are the average minimum temperature in early to mid March,the precipitations in mid to late March and in early April and the average minimum temperature in the middle April.Besides,the research indicates that the average minimum temperature in early to mid March is below5.0℃,precipitation in mid to late March and early April is respectively larger than15.0mm and less than5.0mm in lean year,while the average minimum temperature in early to mid March is above3.0℃,precipitation in mid to late March and early April is respectively less than5.0mm and larger than15.0mm in abundant year.
作者
刘春涛
慕臣英
李德萍
郭灿
朱俊翰
LIU Chun-tao;MU Chen-ying;LI De-ping;GUO Can;ZHU Jun-han(Meteorological Service in Laoshan District of Qingdao,Laoshan 266102,China;Shenyang Meteorological Service,Shenyang 110168,China;Qingdao Meteorological Service,Qingdao 266003,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2017年第5期108-112,共5页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
青岛市气象局业务短平快项目(2015qdqxd04)资助
关键词
樱桃
气象因子
趋势产量
气象产量
预报
Cherry
Meteorological factors
Trend yield
Meteorological yield
Forecast
