摘要
[目的/意义]面对当今社会犯罪率不断上升的趋势,犯罪预测技术得到了广泛的应用,客观并准确地预测犯罪成为警方情报部门工作、研究的重点。在以往的警务模式中警方常处于被动状态,而犯罪预测可以通过以往积累的犯罪数据来确定一类犯罪模式,并据此预测未来此类犯罪发生的可能性。[方法/过程]与环境犯罪学等相关理论相结合,可以建立以环境犯罪学为基础的犯罪预测模型,综合评价在罪犯、犯罪目标、犯罪环境三个因素相互作用下犯罪发生的可能性。[结果/结论]从新的角度建立犯罪预测模型,可以在一定程度上降低传统犯罪预测中主观因素对预测结果的干扰,能够进一步达到犯罪预测的目的。
[Purpose/Significance]In the face of the rising trend of crime in today's society,the crime predicting technology has been widely used.Objective and accurate prediction of crime has become the focus of the work of the public security intelligence department.The police were often in a passive state in the previous police model,but the crime predicting can identify a class of crime patterns by accumulating past crime data,and predicting the possibility of future crimes.[Method/Process]We can comprehensively evaluate the possibility of crime in the interaction of three factors,criminal,criminal target and criminal environment through establishing a crime prediction model based on environmental criminology,combined with environmental criminology and other related theories.[Result/Conclusion]From a new angle,the establishment of crime prediction model can reduce the interference of subjective factors in the prediction of crime in the traditional crime prediction to a certain extent,and can further achieve the purpose of criminal prediction.
作者
李雨聪
刘硕
王方明
Li Yucong;Liu Shuo;Wang Fangming(Criminal Investigation Police University of China,Shenyang 110854)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期45-49,56,共6页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"大数据背景下中国反恐情报预警体系研究"(编号:16BTQ064)
中国刑事警察学院2015年度院级重大项目(社科类)培育计划(中央高校基本科研业务费项目)"大数据背景下全国刑侦联查平台类案分析研究"研究成果之一
关键词
环境犯罪学
犯罪预测
预测模型
犯罪预防
environmental criminology
crime predicting
predication model
crime prevention
