摘要
本文使用QUAIDS结构方程模型分析了CHIP(1995、2002、2013)城市随机入户调查数据,发现1995—2013年,中国城镇家庭消费结构出现了极大的转变,在空间、时间维度以及不同类型的家庭之间差异明显。空间上,地域差异由东、西、中部三级变为东、中西两级状;1995—2002年,消费总量并没有出现显著增加,但消费结构变化明显;2002—2013年,家庭消费总量迅速显著上升,消费价格弹性绝对值逐渐增加,消费支出弹性渐趋于1,家庭消费结构更多地受到市场价格而非可支配收入的影响。随着中国城市家庭变得越来越富裕,食品消费、家庭用品消费在总消费所占份额不断下降,然而住房消费总占比由1995年的23%增加到2013年的38%。住房消费占比不断上升挤占了其他家庭消费、降低总需求,同时也会增加工资上升的压力。
Since the economic reform of the late 1970s,China has been transformed from a poor agricultural economy into a“world manufacturing hub”and the second largest economy in the world.At the same time,the consumption patterns of Chinese urban residents have changed enormously,from subsistence-based to taste-based.With the increase in disposable income and changes in the family structure,consumption and its structure have become important factors influencing the direction of the Chinese national macro-economy.Only by understanding the main factors affecting the various types of household consumption can policymakers make appropriate policies that affect consumption and hence the whole economy.At present,academic studies of this issue tend to focus on the macroeconomic field,and research on consumption structure is still in its infancy.This paper aims to clarify the factors that influence the consumption structure,using micro-data to study the inherent logic of urban household consumption decision making.In terms of data and research methods,this paper uses CHIP data and the QUAIDS model.[JP2]According to the classification standard of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Chinese Government,this paper divides the consumption data in CHIP 1995,2002 and 2013 into eight broad categories to analyze its changes,status and influencing factors.This paper finds that from 1995 to 2013,the urban household consumption structure underwent tremendous changes,with obvious differences in space,time and family type.Regarding spatial diversity,the regional differences changed from three pillars(east,west,middle)to two pillars(east and middle-west),and the gap between the eastern and the central-western regions widened significantly.With respect to structure,the share of food consumption,facilities and services consumption in total consumption declined,but the share of housing consumption increased from 23%in 1995 to 38%in 2013.The rising share of housing consumption will squeeze out other consumption,reduce aggregate demand and increase the pressure on wages.From the regression results of the QUAIDS model,it can be seen that the rise in the prices of consumer goods almost always leads to a decrease in their total share.Through this model,we can obtain the expenditure elasticity and Marshall price elasticity of urban residents consumption in eight categories.This paper finds that the expenditure elasticity tends to the value of 1 in 1995-2013.This is in contrast to the tendency of most price elasticity from 1995 to 2013,which shows that the absolute value of consumer price elasticity gradually increased.This implies that the influence of disposable income on consumption structure was weakened,while the influence of market prices was strengthened.Finally,the survey data are divided along three dimensions:the age of the head of the household,the number of adults in the household and the number of children.By further examining the expenditure elasticity of households,this paper finds that the consumption patterns of residents in different family demographic structures are quite different.If income increases,older households are more likely to spend more on health care expenses;families with more adults spend more on food expenses;and families with more children spend more on food,clothing and living expenses.This finding is in accordance with the needs of households with different age structures.As urban China ages and the country is characterized by“living with the elderly”and decreased numbers of children,medical spending will continue to increase,while housing consumption will decline due to changes in the population structure.Therefore,we can conclude that as more people are educated and the scale of middle class increases,health care,education,tourism,facilities,transportation and communications will become the new driving force for consumption growth.Some problems exist in current urban residents consumption:the regional imbalance has intensified,and the consumption structure is more influenced than before by market prices.
作者
唐琦
夏庆杰
李实
TANG Qi;XIA Qingjie;LI Shi(School of Economics,Peking University;School of Economics and Business Administration,Beijing Normal University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期35-49,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
作者感谢教育部人文社会科学规划项目(13YJA790125)、北京市社会科学基金研究基地项目“北京城市多维贫困问题研究”(项目编号为15JDJGA071)的资助。
