摘要
2016/17年榨季我国食糖期货和现货价格在进口保障措施的预期驱动下维持高位震荡态势,高价糖抑制部分终端消费,但在走私入境、储备投放等不确定性变量增加的背景下如何构建有效的食糖消费估计模型尤为重要。本文通过宏观经济数据、食品工业分行业数据和产业月度供需平衡模型,回顾与分析了2016/17年榨季我国食糖消费形势,其呈现"总量平稳、增速下滑、结构转变"的显著特征,假定当前的消费特征得以持续,进而对2017/18年榨季行业消费特点进行了展望分析,宏观经济、食品制造业分行业状况和流通结构3个方面的分析一致表明,2017/18年榨季食糖消费将维持小幅增加态势。
In 2016/17 crushing season,driven by the expectations of implementing import safeguard measures,both futures and spot prices of China’s sugar remain high and volatile.High sugar prices inhibited some end-use consumption.However,how to build an effective estimation model of sugar consumption is particularly important in the context of increasing uncertainties such as smuggling into the country and launch of reserves.By using macroeconomic data,sub-industry data of the food industry,and the industry’s monthly supply and demand balance model,this paper reviews and analyzes the sugar consumption situation in China in 2016/17 crushing season.It shows the prominent features of“stable total volume,declining growth rate,and structural changes”.Assuming that the current consumption characteristics will continue,the paper further analyzes the outlook of the consumption characteristics of the industry in 2017/18 crushing season.Analysis of the macro economy,status of sub industry in food manufacturing industry,and circulation structure consistently shows that sugar consumption will maintain a slight increase in 2017/18 crushing season.
作者
刘晓雪
王新超
LIU Xiao-xue;WANG Xin-chao(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048)
出处
《甘蔗糖业》
2018年第2期19-26,共8页
Sugarcane and Canesugar
基金
国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项资金(CARS-170601)
教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097)
国际农业研究体系"主要国家食糖市场稳定政策跟踪研究"
关键词
食糖消费
食品工业
月度平衡关系
甜味剂替代
消费预测
Sugar consumption
Food industry
Monthly equilibrium
Sweetener replacement
Consumption forecast
