摘要
创新扩散是创新通过某种渠道随着时间在社会系统成员间传播的过程。创新扩散S型规则由两条曲线组成:一条被称为累积采用曲线,即S型曲线;另一条被称为单位时间采用量曲线,即钟形曲线。创新扩散率主要受创新特点、创新者特点和环境因素的影响。从创新扩散S型曲线的由来看,其发端于人口增长模型中的增长曲线,后由Tarde提出S型曲线规则,最后Ryan和Gross促使其成为一种研究范式。从创新扩散S型曲线成因看,"波浪效应"和"阈值模型"是两种典型的解释模型:"波浪效应"是指创新扩散过程就像波浪一样,由创新中心点向四周扩散;"阈值模型"探讨了在个人参与某项活动之前,参与该活动的其他个体必须达到的人数。未来重点围绕3个方面进行深化研究:(1)进一步验证S型曲线;(2)验证创新扩散S型曲线中的数理模型;(3)结合创新扩散影响因素与扩散形态,将模型应用到创新扩散预测方面。
Innovation diffusion is the process by which innovations spread through the pipeline over time among members of the social system.The S-rule of innovation diffusion consists of two curves:one is called the cumulative adoption curve,that is,the S-curve;the other is called the consumption curve per unit time,that is,the bell-shaped curve.The rate of innovation diffusion is mainly affected by innovation characteristics,innovation characteristics and environmental factors.From the point of view of diffusion of sigmoid curve from innovation,it starts from the growth curve in the model of population growth.Later,Tarde proposes the rule of sigmoidal curve.Finally,Ryan and Gross make it a research paradigm.From the origin of the diffusion curve of S-shape,"wave effect"and"threshold model"are two typical models of interpretation:"wave effect"refers to the diffusion process of innovation as a wave spread from the innovation center to the periphery;"threshold the model explores the number of people that other individuals involved in an activity must reach before they participate in an activity.The future focuses on three aspects to deepen the study:first,to further verify the Sshaped curve;second,to verify some of the S-shaped curve of innovation diffusion mathematical model;Third,the diffusion of innovation and proliferation of morphological factors combined with the model is applied in the prediction of innovation diffusion.
作者
段哲哲
周义程
Duan Zhezhe;Zhou Yicheng(The Institute of Urban Governance,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518128,China;Department of Public Administration,Taiwan Chengchi University,Taibei 11605,China;School of Politics and Public Administration,Soochow University,Suzhou 215123,China)
出处
《科技进步与对策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第8期155-160,共6页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(16BZZ047)
江苏省新型城镇化与社会治理协同创新中心和江苏高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队建设项目(2015ZSTD010)
关键词
创新扩散
S型曲线
钟形曲线
时间形态
Innovation Diffusion
S-shaped Curve
Bell-shaped Curve
Temporal Morphology
