摘要
本文根据中国签署的13个自由贸易协定中的关税削减方案,用一般均衡模型模拟分析了自由贸易协定的实施对中国农业的影响,探讨了多重自由贸易协定关税削减方案的叠加效应,并探讨了中国农业供给侧结构调整策略。模拟结果显示,在13个自由贸易协定全部实施后,中国的活动物、肉类、奶类、动植物油和食糖产业部门会受到进口冲击,而蔬菜、水果、粳稻和其他作物产业具有出口潜力。为此,在自由贸易区战略的大背景下,本文提出中国农业产业结构的优化方案:适度调减活动物、肉类、奶类、食糖和动植物油产业的产能;在具有出口潜力的产业部门,可以适当调增蔬菜和温带水果、粳稻和其他作物的产能,通过调整结构趋利避害来应对冲击,主动实施农业供给侧结构调整。
Based on the tariff reduction among 13 signed FTA agreements by the Chinese government,this article conducts a simulation of the inq)acts of 13 FTA agreements on China^agricultural production with a computable general equilibrium model,exploring the superposition effect of the tariff preference scheme in multiple FTAs,and the optimal strategies of agricultural structure adjustment on the supply side.The results show that sectors of live animals,meat,daily products,sugar,and edible oils could sufifer from import shocks,while sectors of rice,vegetable and fruit,oil crops and other industries could have export potentials.The study provides an optimal solution to agricultural structural adjustment,by reducing production capacity of sectors such as live animals,meat,daily products,sugar,edible oils and increasing production capacity of sectors such as vegetable and fruits in tenq>erate zone,japonica rice and other products with export potentials.Through this structural adjustment,China can cany out the supply side reform in an active maimer in case of import shocks.
作者
周曙东
卢祥
郑建
肖宵
Zhou Shudong;Lu Xiang;Zheng Jian;Xiao Xiao
出处
《中国农村经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期28-40,共13页
Chinese Rural Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"农产品安全
气候变化与农业生产转型研究"(编号:13&ZD160)
国家现代农业(花生)产业技术体系--产业经济(编号:CARS-13)
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目的资助
