摘要
加快实施自由贸易区战略、逐步构筑高标准的自由贸易区网络,是"十三五"时期中国进一步对外开放的重要举措,而大型区域贸易协定(Mega-RTA)的建设是其中的核心内容。本文构建了一个29个国家和地区的全球一般均衡大型数值模型系统,根据现有区域贸易协定谈判的现状将影响机制精确地建模到系统中,进而采用"反事实"模拟方法定量评估并比较了中国现有大型区域贸易协定谈判的潜在经济影响。模拟的结果发现:(1)这些协定都会提高中国的福利、产出、就业和贸易,其中贸易效应最强、产出和就业效应其次、福利效应相对较小;(2)协定其他成员都会获利,比较而言,经济规模小和出口依存度高的成员受益更多;(3)比较发现,亚太自贸区和区域全面经济伙伴关系协定对中国的积极作用最突出,其次是中日韩自贸区,积极效应较小的是中国—东盟自贸区升级版和中国—海合会自贸区。论文扩展和丰富了区域贸易协定的理论建模和量化分析方法,并且模拟的发现对于中国对外自由贸易区建设战略的政策选择、优先次序及谈判策略都具有政策参考价值。
Accelerating the implementation of its free trade agreement strategy and gradually building a high quality free trade agreement network are important measures of China’s opening-up policy in its thirteenth five-year plan period.The construction of mega-regional trade agreements(mega-RTAs)is the key aim of this strategy.As the world s second-largest economy and the largest goods trade country,China’s mega-regional trade agreements will significantly affect the world economy.However,quantitative analyses and comparisons of the economic effects of China’s participation in a mega-RTA are still scarce.Most studies have examined individual trade agreements.Such studies are not only insufficient,they also ignore the newest developments in modeling trade agreement negotiations,which,for example emphasize new rules and institutional openings.This study conducts a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the economic impact of China’s existing mega-RTAs and their economic effects.The results provide theoretical guidance and policy support for the development of China’s free trade agreement strategy.This study uses a global general equilibrium model system that includes 29 countries and regions to evaluate the economic impact of China’s participation in mega-RTAs.The production structure in the model is the constant elasticity of substitution(CES)production function,and the demand structure is the nested CES consumption function.Trade costs are introduced into the trade structure and are decomposed into import tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers.Import tariffs barriers bring tax revenues,but non-tariff barriers only bring sunk costs.The model also constructs an endogenous trade imbalance structure by introducing“inside money”.Using global and national economic data from 2013 as a benchmark,the study uses calibration and estimation methods to determine model parameters,and then constructs a numerical general equilibrium model structure to quantify the economic impact of China’s mega-RTA negotiations.Furthermore,in determining the parameters of the elasticity,we innovatively assume the elasticities value to be a uniform distribution,and then determine the linear or nonlinear distribution effects.This study numerically simulates the potential effects of five mega-RTAs that China is involved in,including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement(CJK),the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Upgrade(CASEAN),the China-Gulf Cooperation Council(CGCC)Free Trade Agreement,and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.Simulation results reveal the following.(1)These trade deals will improve China’s welfare,production,employment,and trade;comparatively the trade effects are the strongest,production and employment effects are moderate,and the welfare effects are the weakest.(2)All of the other member countries will gain from the trade deal,and the countries with small economic scales and high export dependence will gain the most.China’s comparative gains and contributions determine its leading role in the agreement negotiation.(3)Comparatively,FTAAP and RCEP will benefit China the most,China-Japan-Korea FTA will benefit China the second most,and China-ASEAN FTA upgrade and China-GCC FTA will benefit China the least.This study makes three contributions.The first is that both tariff and non-tariff barriers are introduced in the theoretical model,which helps to quantify the impact of the new rules that are emphasized in the current regional trade agreements.The second is the assumption of a series of different consumption and production elasticity in the simulation results,which allow the impact to be presented in the form of a statistical distribution.The third is a comprehensive quantitative analysis and comparison of the impact of these mega-RTAs on China.The results have important policy implications for China’s policy options,priorities,and negotiation strategies and for accelerating the implementation of the free trade agreement strategy.
作者
李春顶
郭志芳
何传添
LI Chunding;GUO Zhifang;HE Chuantian(Guangdong University of Foreign Studies;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第5期132-145,共14页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"构建陆海内外联动
东西双向开放的全面开放新格局研究"( 15ZDC017) 的成果之一
关键词
大型区域贸易协定
数值一般均衡
福利
贸易
Mega-regional Trade Agreement
Numerical General Equilibrium
Welfare
Trade
