摘要
经济发展新常态下,中国面临着保持经济中高速增长、促进产业结构调整升级的双重任务。本文首先系统阐述了互联网对经济增长和产业结构调整的作用机制,然后采用2002-2014年地级市层面的面板数据进行了因果推断检验。工具变量估计结果显示:互联网不仅显著促进了经济增长,而且具有明显的结构效应——更有助于服务业部门的增长,从而促进产业结构向服务业调整。扩展分析表明,互联网的结构调整效应在教育发展程度好、城市化水平高的地区更为显著。我们的研究为"稳增长、调结构"政策提供了新的思路。
Under the new normal state of economic development,China is facing the dual task of maintaining medium-high speed economic growth and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure.This paper systematically expounds the mechanism of the Internet’s impact on economic growth and industrial structure transformation,and then uses the prefectural city level panel data during 2002-2014 to conduct causal inference analysis.The result of instrumental variable estimation shows that Internet not only significantly promotes economic growth,but also has obvious structural effect,which is more conducive to the growth of service sector,thus promoting the transformation of industrial structure to service industry.The expansion analysis shows that the structure transformation effect of the Internet is more significant in the areas where education is better and urbanization is higher.Our research provides a new way of thinking for the policy to balance the“steady growth”and“structural adjustment”.
作者
叶初升
任兆柯
Ye Chusheng;Ren Zhaoke
出处
《南京社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期18-29,共12页
Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"供给侧结构性改革与发展新动力研究"(16ZDA006)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"当代发展经济学前沿理论跟踪研究"(13JJD790020)的阶段性成果
关键词
互联网
经济增长效应
结构调整效应
工具变量估计
internet
economic growth effect
structural transformation effect
instrument variable estimation
