摘要
在对灰色GM(1,1)模型及回归模型研究的基础上,考虑到模型的适用范围及预测误差问题,将灰色GM(1,1)模型与回归模型进行组合,以回归模型的模拟值作为灰色GM(1,1)模型的原始数据序列进行预测.然后运用灰-回归组合模型对河南省城镇居民收支进行预测.结果表明:灰-回归组合模型扩大了单一模型的适用范围,并且对河南省城镇居民收支预测误差更小,模型精度更高.
Based on the study of grey GM(1,1)model and regression model,we take into account the scope of application of model and the problem of prediction error.The grey GM(1,1)model is combined with the regression model,and the simulated value of the regression model is used the raw data sequence of the grey GM(1,1)model to predict.Then we use the grey-regression combination model to predict the income and expenditure of urban residents in Henan province.The results show that the grey-regression combination model expands the scope of application of the single model,the prediction error of urban residents’income and expenditure in Henan province is smaller,and the accuracy of the model is higher.
作者
朱晓宵
李炳军
杨卫明
ZHU Xiaoxiao;LI Bingjun;YANG Weiming(College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2018年第7期1149-1156,共8页
Henan Science
基金
河南省软科学项目(172400410015)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2016BJJ022)
关键词
灰色GM(1
1)模型
回归模型
组合预测模型
城镇居民
收支
grey GM(1,1)model
regression model
combination prediction model
urban residents
income and expenditure
