摘要
中国麻疹的免疫率在近十几年已达到了相当高的水平(99%以上),但仍是全球报告发病数最多的几个国家之一。消除麻疹是艰巨而重要的任务,需对麻疹的传播有深入的认识。但目前为止,对中国麻疹动态传播的认识非常有限。以青岛市麻疹为例,估算麻疹免疫实施前(1951-1964)年及近期(2000-2014年)两个阶段的传染率及其季节性,并分析免疫实施后传染率季节性发生变化的可能影响因素。采用时间序列SIR(Time Series Susceptible Infected Recovered(TSIR))模型估算随时间变化的麻疹传染率。结果显示青岛市麻疹传染率在两个阶段均具有显著的年季节性。近15年青岛市麻疹传染率季节性峰值明显后移,从免疫实施前的12月后移至2月,这可能与近几十年出现的春运现象有关。青岛市麻疹在免疫实施前和近年的传染率季节性幅度远大于麻疹在欧洲及非洲国家的传染率季节性幅度。
In the recent decade,measles vaccination coverage rate in China has reached a very high level(more than 99%),however China is still one of the countries with the highest measles incidents.Eliminating measles is an arduous and important task,requiring a deep understanding of measles transmission.However,study on transmission dynamics of measles in China is very limited.In this paper,we took measles in Qingdao as an example to estimate its transmission rate and transmission seasonality for two stages:pre-vaccination era(1951 1964)and recent 15 years(2000 2014).The Time Series Susceptible Infected Recovered(TSIR)model was used to estimate the measles transmission rate over time.The results showed that the measles transmission rate in Qingdao had significant annual seasonality in both stages.In recent 15 years,the seasonal peak of the measles transmission rate in Qingdao has obviously shifted from December to February,when Chinese usually celebrate Chinese New Year.The transmission seasonality for measles in Qingdao is far greater than the seasonality of measles transmission in other countries.
作者
方海旭
陈佶
赵继军
FANG Haixu;CHEN Ji;ZHAO Jijun(Institute of Complex Science,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071)
出处
《复杂系统与复杂性科学》
EI
CSCD
2018年第1期80-85,93,共7页
Complex Systems and Complexity Science
基金
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2018MH037)
关键词
麻疹
传染率季节性
发病数周期性
免疫
measles
transmission rate seasonality
reported cases seasonality
vaccination
