摘要
随着全球变化的加剧,极端气候事件及重大灾害事件的演化与发展过程成为灾害研究的热点问题之一。在梳理和分析极端气候事件演化研究相关文献的基础上,主要从演化阶段、演化方式、演化分析方法三方面对已有的研究成果进行归纳总结,并重点阐述了用于辨析灾害事件复杂演化结构与耦合关系的多维度研究方法——复杂网络(Complex Network)在极端气候事件演化分析中的应用。综述发现,当前极端气候事件演化研究面临以下问题和挑战:要重视极端气候事件演化的复杂性和整体性,加强极端气候事件演化的定量分析,加强极端气候事件与社会系统"转入-转出"的机理研究。
With the intensification of global change,the evolution and development of extreme climate events and major disasters have become one of the hot issues in disaster research.On the basis of sorting out and analyzing the related literatures on the evolution of extreme climate events,the existing research results are summarized from three aspects:evolution stage,evolution mode and evolution analysis method,and the multi-dimensional research method,complexity,which is used to distinguish the complex evolution structure and coupling relationship of disaster events,is emphasized.The application of Complex(Network)in the analysis of extreme climate events.It is found that the current research on the evolution of extreme climate events is facing the following problems and challenges:we should pay attention to the complexity and integrity of the evolution of extreme climate events,strengthen the quantitative analysis of the evolution of extreme climate events,and strengthen the study on the mechanism of extreme climate events and the turn-out of the social system.
作者
何佳
苏筠
HE Jia;SU Yun(Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第4期223-228,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41771572)
关键词
极端气候事件
灾害事件
演化阶段
演化分析方法
复杂网络
研究进展
extreme climate events
disaster events
evolutionary stages
evolutionary analysis methods
complex networks
research progress
