摘要
本文运用2001-2016年中国农产品出口巴西市场的贸易数据,对两国的贸易现状进行分析,并采用二元边际的分析方法对中国农产品的出口增长进行分解,运用向量自回归模型探讨影响二元边际的重要因素。研究结果显示:中国农产品对巴西出口的增长表现为集约边际处于主导地位,扩展边际的贡献率不高;巴西的农业附加值对扩展边际和集约边际均表现为负向作用,中国的出口价格指数则均表现为正向作用,而巴西的农业劳动生产率则对二者的影响方向不一致。因此,进一步丰富中国对巴西农产品出口品种,提升农产品附加值是深入推动双方农产品贸易发展的主要目标。
Using the trade data of China′s agricultural produces exports to the Brazilian market from 2001 to 2016,this paper analyzes their current trade situation,uses the binary marginal analysis method to decompose the export growth of Chinese agricultural produces,and uses vector autoregressive model to explore the important factors affecting the binary margin.The results show that the growth of China′s agricultural produces exports to Brazil is dominated by the intensive margin,and the contribution rate of the expansion margin is not high;Brazil′s agricultural added value has a negative effect on the marginal and intensive margins,China′s export price index show positive effects on both them,while Brazil′s agricultural labor productivity has an inconsistent direction for both them.Therefore,further enriching China′s agricul-tural produces exports to Brazil and increasing the added value of agricultural produces are the main objectives of promo-ting agricultural trade development between China and Brazil.
作者
杨逢珉
田洋洋
YANG Feng-min;TIAN Yang-yang(School of Business,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China)
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第9期101-107,共7页
Commercial Research
关键词
农产品
中国与巴西
扩展边际
集约边际
agricultural produces
China and Brazil
expansion margin
intensive margin
