摘要
山荆子(Malus baccata (L.) Borkh.)具有较高的观赏、经济价值,是苹果属(Malus)植物的重要种质资源。本文利用ENMeval数据包调整Max Ent模型的调控倍频和特征组合参数,根据602条现代分布记录和筛选的8个生物气候变量,模拟预测山荆子在末次盛冰期、中全新世、现代、2070年(RCP 8.5) 4个时期的潜在分布区。采用贡献率、置换重要值比较和刀切法进行检验,综合分析各环境变量对山荆子潜在地理分布的影响。结果显示,当RM值为2、FC为LQHPT时,Max Ent模型的复杂度和过拟合程度较低,该参数下AUC值的均值为0.9272±0.0019,表明模型预测极准确;山荆子现代高度适生区为山西的太行山、管涔山和吕梁山,吉林、辽宁东北部,陕甘宁交界处,河北北部,鲁中南地区;末次盛冰期山荆子适生区整体上显著向东南偏移,北方的高度适生区消失;中全新世适生区轮廓与现代基本一致,但略微有向高海拔地区收缩的趋势; 2070年山荆子在国内的适生区将向高海拔地区急剧收缩,中度、高度适生区面积急剧减少;山荆子现代潜在地理分布受温度和降水因子的共同影响,但后者的影响更大。本研究预测气候变化对山荆子分布范围的影响,将对其种质资源保护和管理提供重要的参考价值。
Malus baccata(L.)Borkh.is an important germplasm resource,with high ornamental,economic,and ecological value.In this study,we used the ENMeval packet to test the complexity and performance of the MaxEnt model under different regulation multipliers and feature combinations and chose a fine-tuned setting with the lowest complexity.Based on 602 modern distribution records and eight environmental variables,we simulated the potential distribution of M.baccata during the Last Glacial Maximum,mid-Holocene,present,and 2070s(RCP 8.5).Percentage contribution,permutation importance,and Jackknife tests were used to evaluate the importance of environmental variables.Results showed that when the RM value was 2 and FC was LQHPT,the complexity and degree of overfitting of the model were relatively low.The prediction results of the MaxEnt model were excellent,as indicated by the AUC value of 0.9272±0.0019.Under current conditions,the highly suitable region for M.baccata covered Mt.Taihang,Mt.Guancen,and Mt.Lüliang of Shanxi Province,northeast Liaoning and Jilin,Shaanxi,Gansu,and Ningxia junction,northern Hebei,and central and southern Shandong.During the Last Glacial Maximum,the highly suitable distribution region in the north disappeared and moved southward.In the mid-Holocene,the potential distribution regions were similar to those of the present-day,though somewhat contracted to high altitude areas.By the 2070s,the distribution in China will sharply contract to high altitude areas.Both temperature and precipitation factors restricted the potential geographical distribution of M.baccata,with the latter being more important.Predicting how climate change will affect geographic range can provide a scientific basis for the protection and management of the germplasm resources in M.baccata.
作者
邹旭
彭冶
王璐
李垚
张往祥
刘雪
Zou Xu;Peng Ye;Wang Lu;Li Yao;Zhang Wang-Xiang;Liu Xue(Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,Nanjing 210037,China;College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;College of Forestry,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)
出处
《植物科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期676-686,共11页
Plant Science Journal
基金
江苏省农业科技自主创新资金项目(CX(16)1005-4-1)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)~~
