摘要
对舰船摇摆作用下弹丸炮口运动状态的变化进行分析,并选取合适的弹丸空中飞行模型和指标体系,建立舰炮武器射击精度分析模型;结合实际需求对仿真模型的可信度评判方法进行分析,综合考虑仿真-样本相容性和试验样本的可信度;在利用试验数据对仿真模型进行可信度分析的基础上,建立考虑仿真可信度的舰炮武器射击精度贝叶斯估计模型,实现在有限样本的条件下利用仿真手段对舰炮武器射击精度进行合理估计的目的。设计对比试验对所建立的评估方法以及估计模型进行了验证,结果表明:(1)可信度评估模型能利用试验数据对仿真模型可信度进行有效评估;(2)设计的射击精度评估模型能综合利用仿真信息和样本数据的优势,实现有效估计。
Change of cannonballs’moving state from ship swaying is analyzed.A model for analyzing the firing accuracy of naval gun system is build based on an available model for describing cannonballs’flying and indicator system for evaluating firing accuracy.A method for calculating reliability of simulation is learned based on requirement in current analysis.The method considers not only the compatibility between simulation and specimens,but also the specimens’reliability.For solving the current problem in analysis,the bayesian model considering the reliability of the simulation for estimating naval guns’firing accuracy is built.The model achieves the aim to estimate naval guns’firing accuracy with limited specimens and simulation effectively.Contrast test based on simulation is built to verify the availability of the reliability evaluation model and the estimation model for naval gun’s firing accuracy.Results show that the reliability evaluation model can use the test specimens to evaluate the simulation’s reliability efficiently and the Bayesian estimation can use the advantages of both the simulation and the firing specimens,and estimate the firing accuracy efficiently.
作者
陈维义
程晗
刘国强
徐义桂
CHEN Weiyi;CHENG Han;LIU Guoqiang;XU Yigui(College of Weaponry Engineering,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China)
出处
《系统工程与电子技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第11期2598-2604,共7页
Systems Engineering and Electronics
基金
国家自然科学基金(51509253
51679245)资助课题
