摘要
针对京津冀一体化发展的总体需求,采用模糊层次分析法,开展京津冀地区洪灾风险评价研究。首先从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体三个方面分析遴选评价指标,采用模糊算法与层次分析法相结合,构造模糊一致判断矩阵确定各指标相对权重,并利用GIS技术将多维指标映射为一维评判准则,建立京津冀地区洪灾风险综合评价模型,确定洪灾风险空间分布状况,实现京津冀洪灾风险等级区划。结果表明:中高风险区主要分布于滦河、大清河及子牙河沿岸,特别是子牙河南支滏阳河上游、大清河南支河系上游以及白洋淀周边区域风险较高;北京、天津、石家庄等中心城区局部区域风险较低,城乡防洪标准提高后,相应区域的洪灾风险等级进一步降低。洪灾风险计算方法和区划结果具有合理性,研究成果可为区域洪灾风险区划和京津冀协同发展规划提供参考。
Aiming at the overall demand of the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,a study of the flood risk assessment on the region is carried out with the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP).Firstly,the assessment indexes are selected from the aspects of disaster-inducing factor,disaster-pregnant environment and disaster-bearing body,and then the relative weights of all the indexes are determined with the fuzzy consistent judgement matrix made through combining fuzzy algorithm with analytic hierarchy process,while the model for the comprehensive flood risk assessment on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is established by mapping the multi-dimensional indexes into one-dimension judgement criteria with GIS technique for determining the spatial distribution status of flood risk and realizing the zoning of the flood risk grade for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The result shows that the areas with medium-high risk are mainly distributed along Luanhe River,Daqinghe River and Ziyahe River,especially the flood risk is higher for the southern branch of Ziyahe River--the Upper Fuyanghe River,the upper river system of the southern branch of Daqinghe River and the areas around Baiyangdian Lake.The flood ricks within the local areas of the central urban districts of Beijing,Tianjin,Shijianzhuang,etc.are lower,while the grades of flood rick in the corresponding areas are to be further lowered after the improvement of the rural and urban flood control criteria.Not only the calculation method and zoning result mentioned herein are reasonable,but the study result can also provide references for the regional flood rick assessment and the collaborative development planning of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
作者
苑希民
桑林浩
沈福新
田福昌
YUAN Ximin;SANG Linhao;SHEN Fuxin;TIAN Fuchang(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China;General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design of Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100120,China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第10期37-45,共9页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0405601)
高等学校学科创新引智计划(B14012)
关键词
京津冀地区
洪灾风险评价
模糊层次分析法(FAHP)
模糊一致矩阵
GIS技术
防洪抗旱
洪水风险图
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
flood risk assessment
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP)
fuzzy consistent matrix
GIS technique
flood control and drought resistance
flood risk map
