摘要
基于2007—2016年中国废纸进口面板数据,运用贸易引力模型,对中国从主要废纸来源国进口的影响因素进行研究,实证结果表明:中国与废纸出口国的经济规模是废纸进口的重要影响因素,地理距离对中国废纸进口有显著阻碍作用,人民币升值对废纸进口有促进作用,国内废纸增值税优惠政策也是提高废纸进口的另一重要因素,废纸利用率的影响虽不显著,但也在一定程度上影响了废纸的进口。由此可见,从提高废纸行业的废纸利用率、政府加强对废纸行业优惠政策、根据地理位置优化废纸进口市场结构等方面来提高中国废纸行业的技术水平与国际竞争力是十分必要的。
⑴Background--With the steady economic growth and the continuous technological improvement of paper manufacturing,China s paper industry has been developing rapidly.The demand for raw materials of paper products is increasing.However,due to the lack of raw materials and the imperfection of waste paper recycling system,China has become the largest importer of waste paper in the world and there is a serious waste of paper products.Therefore,it has great significance to explore the influencing factors of China s waste paper import trade to promote the development of the paper industry and enhance its competitiveness.⑵Methods--Based on the panel data analysis of the waste paper import trade between China and the United States,Britain,Japan,the Netherlands,Canada,Italy,Australia,Spain,Belgium and Germany from 2007 to 2016,this paper uses the extended trade gravity model to introduce the key factors such as waste paper utilization rate,and combines with the policy factors of current tax preference changes in China s waste paper industry.Random effect,fixed effect and pooled OLS models are used to estimate the influencing factors of China s waste paper import.⑶Results--Based on the analysis of China s waste paper production and import data from 2007 to 2016,three characteristics are found:①China s waste paper recycling and utilization rate is still low;②The volume and price of China s waste paper import fluctuate significantly;③The main source countries of China s waste paper import are stable.Hausman test and F test were carried out on the three econometric models respectively,and the results showed that the pooled OLS model was significantly better than the others.Therefore,the pooled OLS was selected to estimate and get the final regression model.The estimation results of pooled OLS show that the per capita GDP of waste paper exporters,the geographical distance between Shanghai port and waste paper exporters,and the exchange rate of RMB to waste paper exporters are all significant at the 1%significant level,which indicates that these 3 factors are the important reasons for the import of waste paper.The coefficient of per capita GDP of waste paper exporters is 4.369;the coefficient of geographical distance between Shanghai port and waste paper exporters is-4.877,which indicates that transportation costs have an impediment to China s waste paper imports;and the coefficient of exchange rate between RMB and waste paper exporters is-2.248,indicating that the appreciation of RMB promotes the growth of China s waste paper imports.At a significant level of 5%,the coefficient of China s per capita GDP is-6.769,showing that China s economic scale is an important factor affecting the import of waste paper.The preferential policy coefficient of waste paper value-added tax is 1.850,which is significant at the level of 10%,indicating that the preferential policy of value-added tax on waste paper is another important factor affecting the import of waste paper.The coefficient of waste paper utilization rate is 5.259.Although it is not significant,the coefficient is positive,indicating that the increase in waste paper utilization is beneficial to the import of waste paper in China to a certain extent.⑷Conclusions and Discussions--The main factors affecting China s waste paper import trade are:the per capita GDP of waste paper export countries,the distance between ports of waste paper export countries and Shanghai port,and the exchange rate of RMB against the currency of waste paper export countries.It can be seen that we can improve the technical level and international competitiveness of China s waste paper industry by improving the utilization rate of waste paper,strengthening preferential policies for waste paper industry and optimizing the structure of waste paper import market according to geographical location.Therefore,it is recommended to optimize the management mode of waste paper enterprises,establish a stable industrial order,open up waste paper emerging import markets,and introduce support policies to encourage social funds to actively invest in small and medium-sized waste paper enterprises.
作者
李维娜
万璐
袁璐瑶
LI Weina;WAN Lu;YUAN Luyao(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083 China)
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2018年第6期21-26,101,共7页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2017ZY58
JGZKPY006)
关键词
废纸
进口贸易
影响因素
引力模型
waste paper
import trade
influencing factors
Gravity Model
