摘要
"稳杠杆"实质上是资本结构动态调整过程。本文从攸关资本结构动态调整的融资需求与供给出发,建立了一个阐释经济政策不确定性经由企业不确定性规避及以银行为代表的金融中介不确定性规避来影响企业资本结构动态调整的逻辑框架,并以1998—2013年中国工业企业数据库中制造业数据为样本进行了实证检验。研究发现:经济政策不确定性经由不确定性规避这一渠道阻碍资本结构的动态调整;随着经济政策不确定性的上升,为有效规避不确定性带来的资本结构调整收益下降和资本结构调整成本上升,企业投资决策更为谨慎,以银行为代表的金融中介因"惜贷"而降低了融资可得性,最终导致资本结构调整放缓;不同行业政策变动敏感度的差异影响行业内企业的资本结构动态调整。这说明稳定的政策预期是"稳杠杆"的前提。因而,新形势下要扎实推进"稳杠杆"、减少企业资本结构动态调整的摩擦,不能仅仅依靠货币金融政策,而应针对影响企业长期投资信心和金融中介融资供给的痛点,把握宏观经济政策调整变化及相互叠加对不同行业微观主体的影响,提高政策的靶向性,营建预期稳定的政策环境,加强政策的前瞻性、一致性、稳定性。
The essence of "stablizing leverage" is the dynamic adjustment process of capital structure. Starting from the financing demand and supply, which is critical to the capital structure dynamic adjustment, this paper establishes a logical framework to interpret the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the dynamic adjustment of corporate capital structure through the uncertainty avoidance of both enterprises and financial intermediaries, and then empirically tested with the data of the manufacturing industry in the China Industrial Enterprise Database from1998 to 2013. Results show that economic policy uncertainty hinders the dynamic adjustment of capital structure through uncertainty avoidance; with the increase of economic policy uncertainty, in order to deal effectively with the decreasing income and increasing cost of capital structure adjustment, enterprises become more cautious in making investment decisions, and the financial intermediaries represented by banks would reduce the availability of financing by credit rationing, which ultimately leads to a slowdown in capital structure adjustment; moreover, the difference in sensitivity of policy changes in different industries does affect the capital structure dynamic adjustment of enterprises within the industry. This indicates that stable policy expectations are a prerequisite for"stablizing leverage". Therefore, under the new situation, in order to firmly promote the "stablizing leverage" and reduce the friction of the dynamic adjustment of corporate capital structure, we should not rely solely on monetary and financial policies, but should also focus on stabilizing market expectations in terms of the key points affecting enterprises’ confidence in long-term investment and financial intermediation financing, grasping the impact of macroeconomic policy adjustments and their overlap on enterprises of different industries to improve policy orientation, as well as strengthening the forward-looking, consistency and stability of policies.
作者
王朝阳
张雪兰
包慧娜
WANG Chao-yang;ZHANG Xue-lanMetals Techno-Economic Research Institute(BAO Hui-na;National Academy of Economic Strategy CASS;School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;China Nonferrous)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第12期134-151,共18页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目"货币政策
资本结构与促进产业向中高端升级研究"(批准号15BJY161)
国家社会科学基金重点项目"治理银行过度集中对产业结构升级的效应及作用路径研究"(批准号14AJY026)
关键词
经济政策不确定性
不确定性规避
资本结构
调整速度
economic policy uncertainty
uncertainty avoidance
capital structure
adjustment speed
