摘要
在区域农业抗旱能力风险评估问题中,考虑到干旱信息的非一致性和评估者的后悔规避心理及风险偏好等因素,在包含三参数区间灰数的混合信息下定义了后悔-欣喜值函数,借助数学分析方法及混合灰靶决策理论,提出了一种基于后悔理论的混合灰靶决策方法。并将该方法应用于河南省新乡市、商丘市、信阳市、三门峡市4个地市的农业抗旱能力风险评估中。结果表明,新乡市的抗旱能力较强,商丘市的次之,信阳市的和三门峡市的相对较弱。该排序结果有助于更科学、更有效地开展农业抗旱工作。
In the risk assessment problem of ability of coping with regional agriculture,considering the factors,such as the inconsistency of drought information,the regret aversion and risk preference of the evaluator,the surprise-regret value function was defined under the mixed information,which contained the three-parameter interval grey number.With the help of mathematical analysis skills and hybrid grey target decision-making theory,the hybrid grey target decision-making method based on the theory of the regret was proposed in this paper.This method was applied to the risk assessment of agricultural drought-resistance ability in the four areas of Henan province.The result shows that the order of the agricultural drought-resistant capability is as follows:Xinxiang city is the strongest,Shangqiu city is the second,Xinyang city and Sanmenxia city are the weakest relatively.The results of this ranking will help us to carry out more scientific and effective work of agricultural drought resistance.
作者
罗党
王付冰
LUO Dang;WANG Fubing(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第6期66-71,共6页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71271086)
河南省科技攻关计划资助项目(182102310014
162102310469)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目计划(18A630030)
关键词
三参数区间灰数
混合灰靶
后悔理论
农业抗旱能力
three-parameter interval grey numbers
hybrid grey target
regret theory
agricultural drought-resistance ability
