摘要
首先,介绍了2018年三次国内外减灾大会的主要内容;其次,根据应急管理部成立背景下综合防灾减灾救灾的特征与要求,阐述了当前减灾领域的若干前沿话题,包括应对气候变化多样性风险、认识灾害系统复杂性特征、减轻区域系统性风险、关注重特大灾害影响的时空涟漪和放大效应、重视"一带一路"综合灾害风险防范、协同趋利避害与生态文明建设等。最后,展望和讨论了我国未来综合防灾减灾救灾的6个重要方面,即:(1)灾害风险科学研究将更关注多尺度、多因素、多过程灾害风险的复杂性;(2)减灾理念将更偏向趋利避害与生态文明建设;(3)灾害管理将更关注综合防灾减灾救灾的体制、机制、法制建设;(4)减灾业务实践将更关注灾害与风险防范的效力与效益;(5)灾害风险管理的国际合作将更关注生产链、供应链、物联网和生态系统等的全面风险管理;(6)城市减灾将更关注韧性城市与协同可持续发展,乡村减灾则需提升灾害设防水平。
Based on the brief introduction of the three domestic and International Conference on disaster reduction in 2018, we expound coping with the complexity of the climate change diversity risk, understanding of the disaster chain, disaster group and disaster encounter, mitigating regional systemic risk, focusing on the spatial and temporal ripples and amplification effects of catastrophic disasters, the prevention of integrated disaster risk in the Belt and Road, the synergistic approach to the benefit and the avoidance of disaster and ecological civilization construction and other frontiers topics in the field of disaster reduction. Finally, six aspects of comprehensive disaster prevention, disaster reduction and disaster relief are discussed and discussed. Disaster risk research will pay more attention to disaster risk complexity of multi-scale, multi factors and processes. The concept of disaster reduction will be more biased towards the approach to the benefit and the avoidance of disaster and the construction of ecological civilization. Disaster management will pay more attention to the system and mechanism of comprehensive disaster prevention, reduction and relief. Disaster reduction business practice will pay more attention to the effectiveness and benefits of disaster and risk prevention. The international cooperation in disaster risk management pays more attention to the comprehensive risk management of production chain, supply chain, Internet of things and ecosystem. Urban disaster reduction will pay more attention to resilience cities and coordinated sustainable development, and the level of rural disaster prevention needs to be improved.
作者
郭君
孔锋
王品
吕丽莉
GUO Jun;KONG Feng;WANG Pin;LU Lili(School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Center for CrisisManagement Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Institute of Remote Sensing and EarthSciences, College of Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China;Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期152-156,193,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目(71790611)
国家自然科学基金"智库研究项目"(71642005)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41801064
41701103
41775078)
中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201843
CCSF201844)
中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201804)
关键词
综合防灾减灾救灾
气候变化
多样性
系统性风险
“一带一路”
韧性城市
应急管理部
integrated disaster prevention
reduction and relief
Emergency Management Department of PRC
climate change diversity
mitigating systemic risk
the Belt and Road Initiative
tenacity city construction
