摘要
为了比较两个不同的海洋垂直混合参数化方案在中尺度海气浪耦合模式数值预报中的效果,采用军队T799全球预报系统和西北太平洋海洋预报系统的预报场资料驱动区域中尺度海气浪耦合模式,针对西北太平洋在2014年9月7—10日和17—20日的大气和海洋要素场进行数值回报试验,并将同期台风观测资料、NCEP再分析资料以及NOAA海表面温度数据各自与模式结果进行比较。结果表明,在无台风天气下使用GLS-ε方案对大气要素的预报效果更好,而MY2.5方案在台风天气影响下表现更好,同时其在连续8天的预报中无溢出现象,较GLS-ε方案稳定性更好;台风影响区域的海表面温度对MY2.5方案更敏感;台风天气过程中,MY2.5方案引起的海洋上层温度混合更强烈。
An experiment was carried out using T799 and ocean forecast system data with the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model to simulate atmospheric and oceanic elements fields in the northwest Pacific Ocean in September 2014.The output data was compared with Final operational global analysis(FNL)data,observation data,and NOAA sea surface temperature data.Through calculating RMSE and PCC of a 72h test and typhoon test,it is concluded that in the case of no typhoon weather,the prediction with the GLS-ε scheme is better,while under the condition of typhoon weather,the prediction with the MY2.5 scheme performs even better.Besides,there is no overflow in the eight-day running time with the MY2.5 scheme,which is more stable than the prediction with the GLS-ε.However,the sea surface temperature influenced by typhoon is more sensitive to the MY2.5scheme,causing severe temperature mix in the upper layer of the ocean.
作者
陈晓斐
齐琳琳
何尽解
汪汇洁
孟旭航
CHEN Xiao-fei;QI Lin-lin;HE Jin-jie;WANG Hui-jie;MENG Xu-hang(College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense and Technology,Nanjing 211101,China;Institute of Battlefield Environment,Air Force Academy,Beijing 100085,China;Meteorological Observatory,Army Unit95788,Chengdu 610043,China;Meteorological Observatory,Army Unit95968,Beijing 100097,China;Meteorological Center of Air Force,Beijing 100085,China;Meteorological Observatory,Army Unit32022,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期845-855,共11页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家"863"计划项目(2012AA091801)
国家自然科学青年基金(41005030
41205044)共同资助
关键词
西北太平洋
耦合模式
参数化方案
预报
台风
North-west Pacific Ocean
coupled model
physical parameterization
forecast
tropical storm
