摘要
农产品市场价格波动是农业经济领域最重要的研究议题。为研究北京农产品价格波动及成因,文章采用北京市2014-2018年主要农产品的月度价格数据研究了这一期间内农产品价格的波动趋势与影响因素。在描述性统计分析中发现蔬菜和鲜果的价格波动趋势最为明显,粮食的价格波动最低,农产品价格整体呈现出了季节性波动,部分农产品之间也出现了正相关波动趋势。文章对季节效应进行了回归分析,并采用Pearson相关系数分析对产业链上上下游之间的纵向引领效应进行了实证研究,另外,还对京津冀地区的横向传导效应带来的价格协同变化用空间计量模型进行了考察。文章最后基于这几种效应提出了相应的政策建议。
Agricultural product market price volatility is the most important research topic in the agricultural economy.In order to study the fluctuations and causes of agricultural product prices in Beijing,the article uses the monthly price data of major agricultural products in Beijing from 2014 to 2018 to study the fluctuation trend and influencing factors of agricultural product prices during this period.In the descriptive statistical analysis,it was found that the price fluctuation trend of vegetables and fresh fruits was the most obvious,while the food was the lowest.The agricultural product price showed seasonal fluctuations as a whole,and some also showed a positive correlation fluctuation trend.The article carries out regression analysis on seasonal effects,and uses Pearson correlation coefficient analysis to empirically study the vertical leading effect between upstream and downstream in the industrial chain.In addition,the spatial measurement model was used to investigate the price synergy caused by the lateral conduction effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The article concludes with corresponding policy recommendations based on these effects.
作者
董志勇
陈丹
梁银鹤
Dong Zhiyong;Dong Zhiyong;Liang Yinhe(College of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2018年第10期112-115,共4页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
北京市社会科学基金项目"北京农产品价格形成机制研究"(项目编号:12JGB030)
关键词
农产品价格
季节效应
横向传导效应
纵向引领效应
价格波动
agricultural product price fluctuation
seasonal effect
lateral conduction effect
vertical leading effect
