摘要
为探究未来贵州省极端气候变化发生趋势与空间格局,在利用中国天气发生器NCC/GU-WG Version 2.0模型对2011—2050年逐日降水量、日最高温和日最低温进行预测的基础上,运用ArcGIS软件和变化趋势分析法,分析了贵州省2011—2050年极端气候指数时空变化特征。结果表明:40年间,日最高温气温(TXx)、日最低气温(TNn)、暖日指数(TX90p)和持续暖期(WSDI)每10a分别增加0.1℃,0.03℃,0.23d和0.4d;冷日指数(TX10p)和持续冷期(CSDI)每10a分别下降0.1d和0.26d。最大日降水量(RX1day)、5日最大降水量(R5D)、强降水量(R95T)、日降水量强度(SDⅡ)和连续湿日(CDD)每10a分别增加1.02mm,1.31mm,5.63mm,0.01mm/d和0.05d,连续干日(CWD)每10a下降0.11d。极端气候指数及其变化趋势的空间格局异质性突出。气候变暖和地形是影响贵州省极端气候指数变化的主要因素。
In order to explore the future change trend and spatial pattern of extreme climate in Guizhou Province,this paper predicted daily precipitation,daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature from 2011 to 2050 by using the method of NCC/GU-WG Version 2.0 model of weather generator in China and analyzed spatial and temporal variations of extreme climate indices from 2011 to 2050 in Guizhou Province by the way of trend analysis and the software of ArcGIS.The results show that extreme climate indices including TXx,TNn,TX90p and WSDI will increase 0.1℃,0.03℃,0.23 d and 0.4 d per decade,respectively,while extreme climate indices including TX10p and CSDI will decrease 0.1 d and 0.26 d per decade,respectively,from 2011 to 2050;extreme climate indices including R5D,R95T,SDⅡand CDD will increase 1.02 mm,1.31 mm,5.63 mm,0.01 mm/d and 0.05 d per decade,respectively,while extreme climate index including CWD will decrease 0.11 d per decade from 2011 to 2050.There were spatial heterogeneities for extreme climate indices and their change trends.Climate warming and terrain are dominant factors affecting variation of extreme climate indices in Guizhou Province.
作者
韩会庆
张娇艳
苏志华
陆艺
HAN Huiqing;ZHANG Jiaoyan;SU Zhihua;LU Yi(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Guizhou Institute ofTechnology,Guiyang 550003,China;Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang 550002,China;School of Management Science,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第2期341-346,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
贵州省教育厅青年科技人才成长项目(黔教合KY字[2017]217)
贵州理工学院高层次人才科研启动经费项目"气候变化对贵州省淡水生态系统服务的影响"
关键词
极端气候指数
空间格局
变化趋势
贵州省
extreme climate indices
spatial pattern
change trend
Guizhou Province
